COP29 needs to deliver  

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) presents a vital opportunity for countries to agree on a new climate finance target and complete the remaining guidance needed to fully operationalize the Paris Agreement, so setting the stage for future ambitious climate action.  

The Paris Agreement is working, but not fast enough. If COP29 succeeds, it will close a chapter in the UNFCCC negotiations and free COP30 to reframe how the Paris Agreement can best ensure a  future that is as climate safe and prosperous as possible, by moving from incremental progress to the necessary transformative levels of climate action.  

Success at COP29 would also give people around the world  hope that countries are still able to overcome common challenges in a tense geopolitical context. Failure at COP29 could deal a significant blow to the multilateral process for addressing climate change, with little reason to assume that the political conditions for success would be better in a year from now.  

Five key things to look out for at COP29 

1. COP29 marks a significant milestone for climate finance: representatives from all countries are tasked with establishing a new global climate finance target. This target, the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) for climate finance, is COP29’s main anticipated deliverable. It will replace the existing U.S. $100 billion goal that is due to expire in 2025. In Baku, Parties will consider not only how much climate finance should be delivered and how much of that should come from public sources or the private sector, but also how the new goal should be structured, who would be expected to contribute to it, and how it can address finance for adaptation and loss and damage.
2. Parties are also expected to finalize outstanding guidance to fully operationalize Article 6 of the Paris Agreement relating to carbon markets — the final part of the Paris Agreement’s ‘rule book’ that remains open. The outstanding issues are highly technical, but mounting political pressure, as well as some progress in recent months, offers hope that COP29 could succeed where COPs in Madrid and Glasgow did not. 
3. All countries are expected to submit new climate targets—national determined commitments (NDCs)—by February 10, 2025, that represent a “progression” beyond their previous NDC and reflect their “highest possible ambition.” Some countries are expected to come forward with their new NDCs during COP29, with a view to building momentum in the run-up to the deadline. A positive outcome on the NCQG will be important to create the best possible conditions for new and more ambitious NDCs. 
4. At last year’s COP28, as part of the global stocktake (GST), Parties agreed on key collective targets and signals, including tripling renewable energy, doubling energy efficiency, transitioning away from fossil fuels, achieving early warning systems for all by 2027, halting and reversing deforestation, and building resilient food systems. COP29 needs to demonstrate progress on how these GST targets are being taken forward, keeping in mind that countries need to show how they have responded to the outcome of the GST in their new NDCs. 
5. Countries are expected to submit their first biennial transparency reports, which provide a clearer picture of how individual countries are progressing towards  their climate goals.  The reports are  they are a key requirement of the enhanced transparency framework under the Paris Agreement, designed to provide clear information on how individual countries are progressing towards achievement of their climate targets and obligations. They are a critical component of the Paris Agreement’s ambition cycle and are essential to create the conditions of mutual trust and confidence needed to foster the greatest possible global ambition. A number of countries could come forward with these reports at COP29. 

 What is next? 

COP29 comes at a crucial moment in the Paris ambition cycle. Parties will gather in Baku a year after the first GST, and just before two important deadlines: submission of biennial transparency reports and more ambitious national climate commitments.  

COP29 is mandated to agree on a new climate goal and to complete the guidance needed to fully implement international carbon markets. If it succeeds in delivering on these two objectives, it would put in place the conditions needed for countries to come forward with new and more ambitious climate targets, marking the end of an era in the UNFCCC negotiations that, for the last decade or so, have been focussed largely on the adoption of the Paris Agreement and the formulation of the technical guidance needed to implement it.  

Success in Baku would mean COP30 in Belém would take place in the context of a fully operational Paris Agreement, informed by the outcome of the first GST and with the knowledge of the collective ambition level of new NDCs. Success at COP29 would free the subsequent Brazilian COP Presidency, building on the Mission 1.5,  to guide countries in considering how the UNFCCC process could do things differently, allowing it to more effectively contribute to a shift from incremental progress to the transformative levels of ambition necessary to achieve a climate-safe future for all. Going forward, Parties could move away from confrontational zero-sum negotiations to a more cooperative mode of work for overcoming common challenges. 

 So, while this year’s COP will be smaller than others in the recent past— both in terms of participation and the number of mandated politically salient deliverables—it is a critical milestone on the path toward transformative climate action.