Salvaging the $1.3 Trillion: Climate Finance in a New Geopolitical Paradigm
The old climate finance bargain is not working anymore. The erosion of climate budgets in Global North countries reflects a reactive prioritization in response to shifting domestic political and economic conditions. In the current global paradigm, progressive domestic voices continuing to apply pressure and moral logic within Northern governments have not brought about the scale of climate finance needed. Only when all major actors, public and private, realize that climate priorities are aligned with long-term economic growth and energy security will climate finance flow at scale.
We must be clear-eyed about what efforts will productively scale climate finance. This does not mean giving developed countries a free pass on their financial obligations and historical responsibilities; Northern countries must lead on climate finance. But pressure alone has yet to result in the necessary increases in climate finance, a reality that is unlikely to change in the near term.
Multilateral climate negotiations need a new way to talk about climate finance. The relevance of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) hinges on its ability to adapt to a world where private finance far exceeds public flows, especially as the most consequential finance decisions and reforms are being made outside its sessions. To remain effective, countries must employ a more flexible structure that strengthens accountability for country climate commitments and embraces two-tier multilateralism— universal consensus-based negotiations and international cooperative initiatives (ICIs).
Public finance alone cannot meet the scale of global climate needs. A core challenge is whether the international system is prepared to confront this gap without abdicating the responsibility of the richest countries to lead. The system should also use the tools that already exist to scale climate finance, such as the Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T (Roadmap to 1.3T), which stands out as the most comprehensive, action-oriented framework with recommendations capable of accelerating the scaling up of finance.
Now is the time for ownership, not more negotiation. Türkiye and Australia are well placed to elevate the Roadmap to 1.3T as a central vehicle for scaling finance. There are several options to advance its recommendations, including by: (i) anchoring the Roadmap to 1.3T to the global stocktake (GST) cycle; (ii) embedding parts of the Roadmap to 1.3T through ICIs and the Global Climate Action Agenda (GCAA); or (iii) by coordinating efforts outside the UNFCCC, for example through the Group of 20 (G20) or a renewed convening of the High-Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing (AGF).
