The third round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0 ) will be informed by the first global stocktake (GST1 ), a core component of the Paris Agreement ambition cycle. However, the extent to which submitted NDCs 3.0 reflect the mitigation targets and signals from GST1 is unclear. This paper highlights the results of an analysis of NDC 3.0 submissions to determine how Parties are following up on the promise of the ambition cycle.

Context

The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28 ) marked the conclusion of GST1 and a pivotal moment when Parties agreed specific collective targets and signals.1

In accordance with the Paris Agreement, Parties shall specify how the NDC has been informed by the outcomes of the GST and provide this information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU ) in NDC submissions. This requirement is a critical component of the Paris Agreement’s “ambition cycle,” and the third round of NDCs marks the first time Parties are expected to fulfill it.

This paper analyzes NDCs 3.0 submitted by August 21, 2025, showing inconsistent results in how GST1 has informed NDCs. Some NDCs use the GST1 outcome as a framework, while others barely mention it. The quality of references to GST1 also varies across NDCs and GST1 targets and signals.

83 percent of NDCs reference domestic policies or quantitative measures dedicated to achieving at least one of the GST1 mitigation targets and signals. The most explicitly referenced target across NDCs is accelerating the reduction of emissions from road transport. Additionally, approximately one-third of NDCs explicitly reference: accelerating zero and low-emissions technologies; tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030; and transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems. However, only three percent of NDCs explicitly reference domestic policies or quantitative measures in line with halting and reversing deforestation by 2030. 76 percent of NDCs do not reference phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and 59 percent do not reference accelerating efforts toward the phase-down of unabated coal power.

Despite the original February 10, 2025 deadline, the majority of Parties have yet to communicate NDCs 3.0, which are now expected in advance of the UN Secretary-General’s summit in September 2025. This means that Parties yet to submit NDCs 3.0 still have an opportunity to clearly demonstrate how GST1 outcomes have informed their NDCs, providing information that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC ) Secretariat can reflect in its upcoming NDC 3.0 synthesis report.

Looking ahead, strengthening the ambition cycle through future guidance and a robust and effective GST2 is essential to ensuring the Paris Agreement delivers on accelerating climate action. Learning the lessons from how GST1 impacts NDC 3.0 will be critical to that.