The period from the end of the first global stocktake (GST) at COP28 (2023) through to COP30 (2025) is critical. During this time period we will learn the collective level of ambition of new climate targets, whether countries have taken into account the outcomes of COP28 in formulating them, and whether countries have put in place the domestic plans, legislation, finance and investment needed to implement those new targets. In the context of the Paris Agreement’s ambition cycle, 2024-2025 are crucial years for preparation, action, and enhanced international cooperation.  

The GST decision from COP28 sets out a number of key, transformational global targets and signals to Parties to: (i) inform their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs); and (ii) enhance implementation and international cooperation.Parties are expected to communicate their NDCs by February 10, 2025, with an end date of 2035.  The GST signals form part of guidance and requirements that have been set out from Paris to date, including that:   

• Each Party’s successive NDC will represent a “progression” beyond its previous NDC and reflect its “highest possible ambition,” reflecting its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC), in the light of different national circumstances

• Parties “shall pursue domestic mitigation measures, with the aim of achieving the objectives” of their NDCs

• Parties include, as part of the information to facilitate clarity, transparency, and understanding of NDCs:  

• • how the Party considers that its NDC is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances

• • how the NDC contributes toward achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2

• • how the NDC is informed by the outcomes of the GST, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement

• Parties come forward with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5 degree C, as informed by the latest science, in the light of different national circumstances

• Parties commit to accelerate action in this critical decade on the basis of the best available science, reflecting equity and the principle of CBDR-RC in the light of different national circumstances and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty

• Parties put in place new or intensify existing domestic arrangements for preparing and implementing successive NDCs

• Parties are expected to present their next NDCs at a special event to be held under the auspices of the United Nations Secretary-General.

In order to implement the GST targets and signals through enhanced NDC ambition and implementation, major barriers must be meaningfully addressed, turned into opportunities for enhanced international cooperation, and translated into development priorities and domestic policies. In the context of making the case for clear leadership to enable such action, this paper focuses on the GST decision’s calls to Parties to: 

• contribute to, in a nationally determined manner, the achievement of the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience target of “[r]educing climate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity and accelerating the use of ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) and nature-based solutions (NBS), including through their management, enhancement, restoration and conservation and the protection of terrestrial, inland water, mountain, marine and coastal ecosystems” by 2030xiii 

• implement “integrated, multi-sectoral solutions, such as land use management, sustainable agriculture, resilient food systems, nature-based solutions and ecosystem-based approaches, and protecting, conserving and restoring nature and ecosystems, including forests, mountains and other terrestrial and marine and coastal ecosystems, which may offer economic, social and environmental benefits such as improved resilience and well-being, and that adaptation can contribute to mitigating impacts and losses, as part of a country-driven gender-responsive and participatory approach, building on the best available science as well as Indigenous Peoples’ knowledge and local knowledge systems.”

 Together, these signals recognize that biodiversity and ecosystem services have limited capacity to adapt to increasing global warming levels and the importance of effective EBA and NBS to the climate system.xv As such, this paper particularly focuses on reducing climate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity by accelerating the use of EBA and NBS.