The 30th Conference of Parties (COP30) in Belém marks a critical turning point for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as it will be the first COP held after a full turn of the Paris Agreement’s ambition cycle, following the completion of first global stocktake as well as the submission of biennial transparency reports and new nationally determined contributions (NDC).
As global temperatures continue to rise and the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 degrees Celsius goal becomes more difficult to achieve, the UNFCCC process could benefit from:
embracing a continued role for multilateral negotiations at the core of the process
using the normative power of the UNFCCC strategically and sparingly and more effectively and efficiently
measuring progress predominantly by reference to the impact of implemented national level policies
using and improving existing processes created by the Paris Agreement, rather than creating new ones
focusing as much on enhancing international cooperation to deliver implementation as on increasing formal ambition
moving toward a non-negotiated common understanding of what the global equilibrium point of net-zero emissions in 2050 would look like
a thorough and honest analysis of the value add of the UNFCCC process
celebrating the successes that the Paris Agreement and UNFCCC process have delivered.
For COP30 to succeed, it must: (i) deliver on mandated negotiated items; and (ii) effectively respond to what is likely to be an insufficient collective level of ambition of submitted NDCs, including through better alignment of the action agenda to deliver on what has already been agreed by Parties. COP30 could also usefully celebrate the action of Parties thus far to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, including through the facilitative multilateral consideration of progress (FMCP).
The COP30 Presidency’s fourth letter, which lays out a vision for an action agenda that is aligned with the outcomes of the first global stoctake, exemplifies a shift toward COPs focusing on enhancing international cooperation and implementation as much as they do on increasing formal ambition. If implemented, this would mark the most significant evolution of the UNFCCC process since the Paris Agreement was adopted.
