The Global Stocktake (GST) process and outcome at COP28 must send clear and specific signals as to opportunities for Parties and non-Party stakeholders (NPS) to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and to avoid catastrophic climate change. Both greater formal climate ambition, including through nationally determined contributions (NDCs), as well as enhanced international cooperation to implement action will be critical. In that context, and to a large extent, what happens after GST ends at COP28 will define its success. Parties should commit to a post-COP28 response to the GST.
The outputs of an effective GST process could usefully be conceptualized in three tiers:
- a limited number of high-level clear signals/high-level asks for mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage (L&D), and means of implementation (MOI) that catalyze the shift of the global economy toward the achievement of the goals of the Paris Agreement
- a defined set of specific, available, and implementable high-impact opportunities to enhance and implement ambition. These must speak to constituencies (such as national-level policymakers and NPS) best placed to convert the signals/high-level asks into action, including through science-based policy pathways that emerge from the GST technical dialogue process. These opportunities should be supported by accessible and scaled-up means of implementation
- consolidated technical resources that Parties and NPS can draw on when developing and implementing climate action, consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
This paper draws upon, and is produced in the context of, the GST technical dialogue process that has revealed a broad spectrum of opportunities to address the challenges of climate change, as well as a wealth of work on pathways and agendas for 2030 and 2050 climate action, including the International Energy Agency’s Credible Pathways to 1.5 °C: Four pillars for action in the 2020s report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change chapter on “Climate Resilient Development Pathways,” the High Level Climate Champions’ Breakthrough Agenda, and the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action Pathways, among others.
To effectively achieve its mandate, the GST should in its outcomes focus on those opportunities that will have the best chance of resulting in positive near-term “high-impact.” Identifying high-impact implementable opportunities necessitates the application of selection criteria, such as:
- certainty of impact (which may vary significantly according to geography)
- key relevant initiatives
- synergies as well as trade-offs in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Applying these criteria, this paper identifies a range of suggested signals and opportunities to action them that have the potential for accelerating climate action and support in the near term. C2ES will further test the viability of these solutions and welcomes comments and suggestions. At the same time, the general approach to identifying solutions has broader applicability to decision-makers and stakeholders looking to identify and implement actionable solutions with a near-term positive impact, including through enhanced international cooperation.