Will Nationally Determined Contributions Deliver on the First Global Stocktake? 

As we head into New York Climate Week, Parties to the Paris Agreement are preparing for the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Summit. Eyes will be on world leaders as they present new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and communicate the vital climate action Parties will pursue through 2035.  

Under the Paris Agreement, Parties are required to communicate a new or enhanced NDC reflecting a Party’s “highest possible ambition” every five years. These NDCs include the contributions that each Party aims to achieve through domestic mitigation measures.  

The third round of NDCs was due February 10, 2025. However, as of the deadline, only thirteen of 195 Parties had communicated an NDC. Now, Parties are expected to share their new and more ambitious NDCs around the Secretary-General’s Special High-Level Event on Climate Action on September 24, 2025.  

These NDCs mark the first time Parties will fulfill a critical component of the Paris Agreement’s ambition cycle. The first global stocktake (GST1) concluded at the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates and included groundbreaking collective targets and signals such as tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.  

Following COP28, Parties are required to specify how the preparation of its NDC has been informed by the outcomes of GST1. Demonstrating how Parties are contributing to the achievement of these collective targets and signals is integral to the purpose and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. It serves as the basis of the ambition cycle and sets a powerful precedent for how Parties take up the GST in NDCs. Yet, there is a range of approaches that Parties are taking to communicate this.  

Without commenting on the level of ambition, one of the best examples of considering the GST1 outcome in a recent NDC submission is Australia’s, particularly its annex titled “Annex B: Australia’s response to the Global Stocktake.” The annex details how Australia is responding to each of the nine mitigation targets set out in paragraph 28 of GST1; the paragraph 33 target on halting and reversing deforestation; and the paragraph 35 target on preserving and restoring oceans and coastal ecosystems.  

While there is no singular format that Parties must follow under the Paris Agreement, Australia’s annex clearly outlines how the NDC considers and contributes to the collective efforts set out by GST1. Other examples of Parties detailing national responses to GST1 include NDC submissions from Canada, the Marshall Islands, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. 

C2ES recently published an analysis of the latest NDCs submitted by August 21, 2025. Parties’ approaches to demonstrating how GST1 has informed their NDCs were found to be inconsistent. Some NDCs use the GST1 outcome as a framework, while others barely mention it. The quality of references to GST1 also varies across NDCs and GST1 targets and signals.  

In its Fourth Letter from the Presidency, the incoming COP30 Presidency referred to the GST as “the global guiding compass to amplify our multilateral ambition, joint action, and collective assessment of progress.” As Parties submit NDCs, it’s worth paying attention to how GST1 targets and signals have informed these Contributions. Integrating the GST1 outcome into NDCs not only bolsters the impact of the ambition cycle but also delivers on the success of the Paris Agreement.