Paper
Elements for the consideration of outputs component of the GST
C2ES submitted this paper to the UNFCCC on September 15, 2023.
The last time so many world leaders gathered on the issue of climate change was nearly five years ago in Copenhagen. The hard lesson of that fractious summit: No one moment, and no one agreement, can deliver “the” answer. We need to advance step by step, on multiple fronts, from the local to the global. And it will take time.
This reality is an important backdrop for the United Nations Climate Summit being convened in New York next week by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.
More than 120 heads of state, including President Obama, are expected, and many will come prepared to announce concrete steps to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Many businesses and nonprofits, some partnering with governments, will also announce new initiatives.
These tangible outcomes will represent important progress in and of themselves. But the larger value of the summit is in focusing leaders on the profound challenges we face, raising consciousness across societies, and building momentum – in particular, toward the new global climate agreement due late next year in Paris.
Unlike Copenhagen, which culminated years of formal negotiations, the New York summit is largely a political way station on the road to Paris. In their few minutes at the podium, leaders will emphasize their resolve for stronger steps at home, and for a stronger global agreement. But there will be no negotiated outcome or joint communique. The only formal output will be the secretary general’s summary.
Most leaders are very unlikely to announce their countries’ “intended nationally determined contributions” to the Paris agreement. Under the formal negotiating schedule, these commitments to reduce emissions post-2020 aren’t due to be submitted until early next year. But an important signal in New York will be for leaders of the major economies to “commit to submit.”
Even without big numbers on the table, there are ways the summit can help move the ball forward by:
In the broadest sense, the aim in both New York and Paris is building confidence, which in turn builds political will. Knowing that others are doing their fair share makes it easier for everyone to do more. It’s an accumulative process – it strengthens over time.
What we need from the New York summit is a clear statement of intent from leaders. We need to know that they’re determined to come forward next year with strong national contributions. That’s how the summit can help set the stage for a Paris agreement that has all the major players on board, moves us closer to a 2-degree pathway, and works to strengthen ambition over time.
Jennifer Huang contributed to this blog post.