Energy & Technology
This white paper is a follow up to the report Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Transportation
About the Authors:
Cynthia Burbank is Vice President of Parson Brinckerhoff (PB). She joined PB in 2007 as National Environment and Planning Practice Leader. She provides strategic and tactical advice to PB’s clients on planning and environmental issues, including the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), air quality, and global climate change (GCC).This includes advising transportation clients on climate change strategies, analyzing greenhouse gas (GHG)-reduction potential of alternative transportation strategies, reviewing state climate action plans, and developing GHG reduction scenarios for transportation.
Cindy joined PB after a 32-year span with the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) that encompassed key roles in highway, transit, aviation, and national transportation policy and legislation. Cindy served as Associate Administrator for Planning, Environment, and Realty for the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). She also served as FHWA’s senior executive with responsibility for FHWA’s implementation of the Clean Air Act (CAA) for transportation, NEPA policy, environmental streamlining, metropolitan transportation planning, statewide transportation planning, and international transportation planning. Prior to joining the FHWA in 1991, Cindy held positions in the Federal Aviation Administration, Federal Transit Administration, the Office of the Secretary of Transportation, and the U.S. Navy. A member of the FHWA Senior Executive Service since 1991, she was designated in October 1998 as one of five core business unit leaders for FHWA.
Nick Nigro is a Solutions Fellow at the Pew Center.
by Steve Caldwell
This Letter to the Editor originally appeared in The Atlantic
In “Dirty Coal, Clean Future” (December Atlantic), James Fallows draws attention to the important role that carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology can play in dramatically reducing the coal-related greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to man-made global climate change. Mr. Fallows claims that his article is “an argument for recognizing that China has faced reality, in launching an all-out effort to ‘decarbonize’ coal—and for recognizing America’s difficulty in doing the same.” China has built more advanced facilities that use coal more efficiently than has the U.S. “Coal without carbon,” however, requires not just more-efficient coal use but CCS, and the data on CCS projects in the U.S. and China do not support the author’s main argument.
The read the full Letter to the Editor, click here.
Steve Caldwell is a technology and policy fellow at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.
Last week the British Government published a report on The Future of Food and Farming in which the role of a changing climate is appropriately highlighted as a major impediment to maintaining consistent and predictable food supplies for the world’s growing population. The timing of this report is excellent; food prices have been rising recently (see chart) and have caused significant hardship for some of the most globally vulnerable populations. These vulnerable populations live in some of the most politically unstable regions, and continued food inflation could exacerbate existing social and economic issues with potentially unpredictable consequences.
Unfortunately as the global climate changes and agricultural productivity shifts, these sort of price rises in basic foods are likely to become more commonplace for the economically sensitive populations in these politically unstable regions – like Southeast Asia, Northern Africa, and the Middle East. This is not to imply that recent increases in food prices were caused by climate change; it is not possible to attribute a single event such as this latest spike in food prices to the long-term trends we expect to experience from our changing climate. It is, however, instructive to identify that the sort of impacts that we expect from climate change can have serious social and political implications.
Recent work shows that several of the world's most important crops could be near climactic thresholds that will seriously impair agricultural yields.Several of these crops (like corn, rice, soybeans and wheat - the source of 75% of global calorie consumption) appear to be sensitive to increases in temperature variation, especially to the occurrence of a particularly hot day in the middle of the growing season. Increases in temperature variation and the prevalence of what are historically unusually hot days is exactly what our best models of the future climate predict. Even if global yields are able to remain fairly constant due to human adaptation to the shifting regions of agricultural productivity (e.g., northward from the U.S. Plains to Canada and Siberia), the temporary economic dislocation will certainly be difficult for today's farmers and for the people who are dependent on the food that they produce.
Other research suggests that increasing temperatures could cause major difficulties for farmers in Southeast Asia who produce a large fraction of global rice output, an important staple in the region. This research recognizes that the human body simply cannot perform the hard manual labor (like that needed to tend to rice paddies) at the temperatures climate models predict. By 2050, these temperatures are expected to be commonplace for the region – potentially resulting in a huge loss of agricultural output.
While agricultural contributions to overall GDP in the rich world may seem relatively minor, it is important to remember that GDP is only a measure of economic activity and not a measure of well-being. The well-being that food provides is not necessarily proportionate to its market price. A common example used to illustrate this point is a comparison of the price of diamonds to the price of water. Water is much less expensive but is an absolute necessity. Staple foods are similar. If the price of diamonds increases, people (in aggregate) can choose to purchase less. If the price of water or food increases however, there is little flexibility (elasticity, in economic terms) in terms of how much less people can choose to buy.
If food prices rise in the rich world, consumers will spend more of their income on food and forgo other consumption options. In developing nations this trade-off may not be possible – creating a situation where political unrest could become more likely. According to World Bank data, over 50% of the world’s population lives on less than $2 a day. Obviously for these populations, even small increases in the prices of staples can cause real difficulties since a large fraction of their income is already spent on food. Some of the regions that have the highest concentrations of the global poor are also the regions that tend to be among the most politically volatile. Though it is unlikely that food prices would directly cause conflict or instability in these regions, it is more likely that the stress caused by higher (or more volatile) food prices will worsen existing socio-economic pressures.
The resulting consequences will be difficult to predict; and by their nature will create difficulties in creating an effective adaptive response. Though it will likely never be clear which future conflicts could have been avoided in the absence of climate change, we do know that proactive policy effort taken now can reduce the eventual impact of future food price pressures.
Russell Meyer is the Senior Fellow for Economics and Policy
Reducing vehicle miles traveled, or VMT, is one of the primary ways to reduce transportation’s impact on the environment. The others are lower-emitting fuels and vehicles.
How do we reduce VMT while simultaneously supporting our economic prosperity? When we drive less, we consume less fuel, which can save us money while conserving energy and lowering our individual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Sounds great, doesn’t it? In fact, the benefits don’t stop there. The co-benefits of driving less (such as improved health from walking more) can often exceed the savings in our wallet and the benefit to our climate.
On the other hand, some people prefer more space, larger yards, or more affordable single-family housing – choices that compete with the desire to reduce VMT through compact development. This means that evaluating where and how we live is not a calculation with simple inputs. We have empirical evidence that suggests compact development is good for society and for many individuals, but we also have evidence that it’s not for everyone.
Climate change is happening and it is caused largely by human activity. Its impacts are beginning to be felt and will worsen in the decades ahead unless we take action. The solution to climate change will involve a broad array of technologies and policies—many tried and true, and many new and innovative.
This overview summarizes the eight-part series Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change.
Science and Impacts discusses the scientific evidence for climate change and explains its causes and current and projected impacts.
Adaptation discusses these impacts in greater depth, explaining how planning can limit (though not eliminate) the damage caused by unavoidable climate change, as well as the long-term costs of responding to climate-related impacts.
As explored in greater depth in Technological Solutions, a number of technological options exist to avert dangerous climatic change by dramatically reducing greenhouse gas emissions both now and into the future.
Business Solutions, International Action, Federal Action, State Action, and Local Action describe how business and government leaders at all levels have recognized both the challenge and the vast opportunity dealing with climate change presents. These leaders are responding with a broad spectrum of innovative solutions. To address the enormous challenge of climate change successfully, new approaches are needed at the federal and international levels, and the United States must stay engaged in the global effort while adopting strong and effective national policies.
For more information, be sure to listen to our Climate Change 101 podcast series
Achieving the very large reduction in greenhouse gas emissions that scientists say is needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change will not be easy. It will require action across all sectors of the economy, from electricity and transportation to agriculture. A portfolio of technologies exists today for achieving cost-effective emission reductions, and emerging technologies hold promise for delivering even more emission reductions in the future. The successful development of these technologies will require research, incentives for producers and consumers, and emission reduction requirements that drive innovation and guide investments. Governments at all levels need to encourage short-term action to reduce emissions while laying the groundwork for a longer-term technology revolution.
January 11, 2011
Pew Center Contact: Tom Steinfeldt, (703) 516-4146
NEW REPORT EXAMINES PATHS TO CLEANER, MORE SECURE
U.S. TRANSPORTATION SOLUTIONS
Pew Center on Global Climate Change Study Examines the Policies, Technologies & Public Attitudes
Needed to Cut Greenhouse Gas Emissions & Oil Dependence
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Transportation – literally our economy’s driving force – presents major energy and climate challenges in terms of oil dependence and greenhouse gas emissions. A new report released today by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change examines cost-effective solutions to begin to cut U.S. transportation emissions and oil use now and move toward cleaner, alternative fuels.
From burning oil, transportation accounts for more than one-fourth of all U.S. GHG emissions. The report, Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Transportation, identifies reasonable actions across three fronts – technology, policy, and consumer behavior – that could deliver up to a 65 percent reduction in transportation emissions from current levels by 2050.
“The Gulf oil disaster tragically reminds us that our oil dependence carries significant risks for our security and environment,” said Eileen Claussen, President of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. “Cost-effective transportation solutions exist now to begin to manage these risks. By supporting meaningful policies as citizens and choosing advanced technologies as consumers, we will drive the nation toward a cleaner, safer transportation future.”
Authored by David L. Greene of the Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy and Steven E. Plotkin of Argonne National Laboratory, the study provides three plausible scenarios of improved transportation efficiency and reduced GHG emissions through 2050, with technology progress and policy ambition increasing from the first to third scenario. The scenarios show emissions reductions of 17 percent, 39 percent, and 65 percent below 2010 levels by 2050. The findings were based on a wide range of existing transportation literature and the authors’ own analysis.
Policies can pull existing technology to market, support future technology development, and correct market failures to reduce oil dependence, the report finds. Effective policies, such as performance standards, pricing mechanisms, and RDD&D, should be employed now and adapted over time as we learn how technologies and polices perform in the real world.
Today’s technologies, if widely used, can already make substantial gains in fuel efficiency and emission cuts, while a fuel mix of electricity, biofuels, and hydrogen could significantly reduce gasoline-powered vehicles by mid-century, the report states. In fact, freight truck emissions could be slashed by 30 to 50 percent with current technology and achieve greater reductions over the next several decades.
Starting now and sustaining efforts to cut transportation emissions over time is critical. The interplay between policies, technologies, and the choices of citizens and consumers can drive adoption of cleaner transportation solutions across the economy.
For more information about global climate change and the activities of the Pew Center, visit www.c2es.org.
The Pew Center was established in May 1998 as a non-profit, non-partisan, and independent organization dedicated to providing credible information, straight answers, and innovative solutions in the effort to address global climate change. The Pew Center is led by Eileen Claussen, the former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs.