Paris

Projecting and Accelerating U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reductions

Projecting and Accelerating U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reductions

September 2017

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More than 190 nations representing more than 95 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions offered “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement reached in December 2015. The NDC submitted by the Obama administration on behalf of the United States is an economy-wide target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. The Trump administration is now weighing whether to “suspend, revise, or rescind” policies to help meet this goal, and has announced its intent to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. President Trump has also suggested the possibility of “re-entry” under revised terms; one option may be a recalibrated U.S. NDC. Analyses suggest that even with some key climate policies rolled back, U.S. emissions in 2025 could range from 14 percent to 18 percent below 2005 levels. In the absence of additional federal policy, stronger action by states, cities and companies can help reduce emissions further. The brief looks at progress in reducing U.S. emissions, how existing and proposed policies may affect emissions through 2025, and additional steps that can achieve stronger reductions.

Doug Vine
Doug Vine
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Achieving the United States' Intended Nationally Determined Contribution

Achieving the United States' Intended Nationally Determined Contribution

Last updated: November 2016

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More than 180 nations representing more than 95 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions offered “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) to the Paris Agreement reached in December 2015. The United States’ INDC is an economy-wide target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. Available analyses suggest that the United States could reduce emissions by more than 22 percent with policies either already in place or soon anticipated. Options for achieving further reductions to meet the 2025 target may include additional policies, technological advances, and stronger action by cities and companies. Concerted efforts across multiple fronts could reasonably produce the reductions needed to meet the goal. Specifically, this paper looks at the progress that has been achieved since 2005, the effect existing and proposed policies will have by 2025 as well plausible steps to fill the gap.

Doug Vine
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COP 21 Paris Preview

Promoted in Energy Efficiency section: 
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November 10, 20152:00-3:30 p.m. Edison Electric Institute701 Pennsylvania Ave., NW4th FloorWashington, DC 20004

Government leaders will gather next month in Paris to hammer out a new global climate change agreement. This expert briefing will provide a close look at how the agreement is shaping up and the growing role of carbon markets in addressing climate change.

November 10, 2015
2:00-3:30 p.m.

Edison Electric Institute
701 Pennsylvania Ave., NW
4th Floor
Washington, DC 20004

Seating is limited

EEI is a secured building and you will have to check in with security in the lobby before gaining access to the 4th floor.

RSVP by noon Monday, Nov. 9

What to Expect in Paris
Elliot Diringer, Executive Vice President of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES), provides an overview of the likely outcomes in Paris. Diringer has led a two-year, in-depth dialogue among top climate negotiators from nearly two dozen countries.

The Role of Carbon Markets
Dirk Forrister
, president and chief executive of the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA), looks at how Paris can advance carbon markets. Forrister will outline IETA’s proposal for how the Paris agreement can help governments and businesses benefit from carbon pricing.

Putting the UNFCCC to the test

There’s a theory I’ve been advancing for some time and the upcoming Paris climate talks will, for the first time, put it to a test.

The issue is whether the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is capable of delivering. Established nearly a quarter century ago as the global forum for countries to take on climate change, the UNFCCC enjoys universal participation – and is universally deemed a disappointment.

The harshest assessments came in the wake of the ill-fated Copenhagen conference in 2009, when many quietly, and some openly, began urging governments to abandon the UNFCCC as a place worth investing any effort or hope.

But governments chose to stick with it. The following year, in Cancún, they hammered out an agreement through 2020. And the year after that, in Durban, they launched a new round of negotiations culminating next month in Paris. The aim: a new global agreement beyond 2020.

Addressing Adaptation in a 2015 Climate Agreement

Addressing Adaptation in a 2015 Climate Agreement

June 2015

By Irene Suarez, Progresum
and
Jennifer Huang, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions

Download the fact sheet (PDF)

With the adverse effects of climate change becoming more frequent and intense, all countries face increasing climate risks and adaptation needs. The negotiations toward a new climate agreement in 2015 present an unparalleled opportunity to elevate and advance climate adaptation both within countries and under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The 2015 agreement could establish a clearer global vision for adaptation under the Convention; provide a framework for presenting
national adaptation contributions to catalyze adaptation action; streamline and enhance UNFCCC institutions; and mobilize resources to help particularly vulnerable developing countries cope with climate impacts. This brief provides an overview of: 1) UNFCCC provisions and institutional arrangements addressing adaptation, and 2) issues and options in addressing adaptation in the new agreement due at the 21st session of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in Paris. (Issues and options related directly to the provision of finance for adaptation are beyond the scope of this brief.)

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Key Legal Issues in a 2015 Climate Agreement

Key Legal Issues in a 2015 Climate Agreement

June 2015

By Daniel Bodansky, Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law, Arizona State University
and
Lavanya Rajamani, Centre for Policy Research

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In fashioning the new international climate change agreement to be adopted later this year in Paris, parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)1 must address a range of legal issues. This brief outlines some of the key issues and concludes that: The Paris outcome arguably must include a core legal agreement constituting a treaty under international law; the exact title of the core agreement is legally irrelevant; the agreement can contain both binding and non-binding elements;
the legal nature of parties’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) is independent of where they are housed; and consistency with the UNFCCC does not require that the agreement adopt the same structure.

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Addressing Finance in a 2015 Climate Agreement

Addressing Finance in a 2015 Climate Agreement

June 2015

By Anthony Mansell, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions

Download the fact sheet (PDF)

A central issue in the Paris climate negotiations is how the new global climate agreement to be reached this year can help strengthen climate finance for developing countries. Developed countries have committed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to help developing countries reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. The new agreement will build on steps already taken and define an approach to climate finance for the post-2020 period.
This brief provides an overview of: existing finance commitments, institutions and mechanisms under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol; current climate finance flows; potential finance-related objectives in a 2015 climate agreement; and options for addressing finance in the 2015 agreement.

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In Brief: Legal Options for U.S. Acceptance of a New Climate Change Agreement

In Brief: Legal Options for U.S. Acceptance of a New Climate Change Agreement

May 2015

By Daniel Bodansky, Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law, Arizona State University

Download the full report (PDF)

U.S. acceptance of the new climate agreement being negotiated under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) may or may not require legislative approval, depending on its contents. U.S. law recognizes several routes for entering into international legal agreements. The president would be on relatively firm legal ground accepting a new climate agreement with legal force, without submitting it to the Senate or Congress for approval, to the extent it is procedurally oriented, could be implemented on the basis of existing law, and is aimed at implementing or elaborating the UNFCCC. On the other hand, if the new agreement establishes legally binding emissions limits or new legally binding financial commitments, this would weigh in favor of seeking Senate or congressional approval. However, the exact scope of the president’s legal authority to conclude international agreements is uncertain, and the president’s decision will likely rest also on political and prudential considerations.

The brief is based on the report, Legal Options for U.S. Acceptance of a New Climate Change Agreement, which provides a fuller legal analysis.

Daniel Bodansky
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Legal Options for U.S. Acceptance of a New Climate Change Agreement

Legal Options for U.S. Acceptance of a New Climate Change Agreement

May 2015

By Daniel Bodansky, Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law, Arizona State University

Download the full report (PDF)

The success of ongoing negotiations to establish a new global climate change agreement depends heavily on the agreement’s acceptance by the world’s major economies, including the United States. The new agreement is being negotiated under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a treaty with 195 parties that was ratified by the United States in 1992 with the advice and consent of the U.S. Senate. U.S. acceptance of the new agreement may or may not require legislative approval, depending on its specific contents.

U.S. law recognizes several routes for entering into international agreements. The most commonly known, under Article II of the Constitution, requires advice and consent by two-thirds of the Senate. In practice, however, the United States has accepted the vast majority of the international agreements to which it is a party through other procedures. These include congressional-executive agreements, which are approved by both houses of Congress, and presidential-executive agreements, which are approved solely by the president.

The President would be on relatively firm legal ground accepting a new climate agreement with legal force, without submitting it to the Senate or Congress for approval, to the extent it is procedurally oriented, could be implemented on the basis of existing law, and is aimed at implementing or elaborating the UNFCCC. On the other hand, if the new agreement establishes legally binding emissions limits or new legally binding financial commitments, this would weigh in favor of seeking Senate or congressional approval. However, the exact scope of the President’s legal authority to conclude international agreements is uncertain, and the President’s decision will likely rest also on political and prudential considerations.

Daniel Bodansky
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Why Lima was so tough

It was clear heading into the U.N. climate change conference in Lima that countries would punt all the toughest issues until next year in Paris, when a grand new global deal is due. All they really needed in Lima were a few procedural decisions setting the stage.

So why did it take more than 30 hours beyond the conference deadline to deliver something so modest?

The answer is that even a seemingly trivial procedural issue can be freighted with substantive implications, so countries fret over every nuance, lest they let something slip that will come back to haunt them later. In Lima, like so many times before, their biggest worry was how responsibility will be distributed across developed and developing countries.

At the start of the global climate effort, developed countries were comfortable with a stark division assigning most of the responsibility to them. But 20 years later, China is now the world’s largest carbon emitter, and developed countries no longer accept the so-called firewall between the two groupings.

The 2011 Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, which launched the current round of negotiations, said the Paris agreement would be “applicable to all.”  But just what that means was left to be sorted out later, and will likely be the central challenge in Paris.

The handwriting is on the famous firewall – it’s coming down. China’s willingness to stand side by side with the United States last month to jointly announce their post-2020 emissions goals is a tacit acknowledgement of that. The question is what if anything takes its place.

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