The Center, in collaboration with the Battelle Memorial Institute, is modeling a range of post-2012 global climate policy scenarios. Interim results from this innovative modeling exercise  were presented at a side event at the UN climate change talks in Bonn, Germany, in June 2008.
The aim of this initiative is to visualize and to assess alternative post-2012 architectures incorporating different types of climate commitments, including absolute economy-wide emission targets, policy-based commitments, and sectoral agreements . The scenarios are not intended as “proposals” for a future framework. Rather, they are meant to illustrate a range of possible approaches in order to better understand their relative merits.
The modeling is the latest in a series of analyses building on the core finding of our Climate Dialogue at Pocantico : engaging all the major economies in an effective post-2012 climate effort requires a flexible framework allowing countries to take on different types of commitments. The six policy scenarios modeled represent different combinations of:
The specific configurations of the six scenarios are described in the presentation .
The analysis compares the projected emissions, economic, and technology impacts of the six scenarios to a “business-as-usual” reference scenario, and to idealized “economically efficient” emission pathways for achieving CO2 concentrations of 450, 550, and 650 ppmv. (There is no prescribed environmental outcome in the six policy scenarios; the aim was for all to achieve outcomes in the range of 450-600 ppmv.)
Preliminary insights from the analysis include the following:
Another round of modeling based on revised policy scenarios is planned, with a final report expected in late 2008.
Previous work building on the Climate Dialogue at Pocantico  includes:
Adaptation to Climate Change: International Policy Options 
Policy-Based Commitments in a Post-2012 Climate Framework 
International Sectoral Agreements in a Post-2012 Climate Framework 
Towards an Integrated Multi-track Climate Framework 
In this Section: