U.S. States & Regions
States and regions across the country are adopting climate policies, including the development of regional greenhouse gas reduction markets, the creation of state and local climate action and adaptation plans, and increasing renewable energy generation. Read More
- The industrial sector directly consumed 27 percent of natural gas in the United States in 2010.
- Newly abundant and low-cost domestic sources provide economic benefits to industry using the fuel for power, heat, and as a feedstock.
- The Energy Information Agency projects total natural gas consumption for industrial heat and power to rise by 6.25 percent between 2012 and 2021 before declining to lower but steady levels through 2035, and it projects natural gas feedstock use to rise by 25 percent between 2012 and 2035.
- Boiler upgrades and replacements can offer measurable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through efficiency improvements as well as displacing coal with gas.
- Combined heat and power systems offer the potential to efficiently use natural gas while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
- Many industrial activities are energy- and emissions-intensive, but some uses of natural gas as a feedstock emit very few greenhouse gases.
|Figure 1: Natural Gas Use in the Industrial Sector (Industry Overall)|
|Source: EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS), 2010|
Overall, the largest direct use of energy by the industrial sector is for process heating, which is the production of heat directly from fuel sources, electricity, or steam to heat raw material inputs during manufacturing. In 2010 process heating using all fuel sources produced 315.4 million metric tons of C02e, which was 40 percent of the total emissions for the industrial sector. Natural gas is the dominant fuel used to generate heat, and process heating accounts for 42 percent of the natural gas use in the industrial sector (see Figure 1).
Industrial boilers for heat and steam are another significant user of natural gas, and, while some are fueled by coal or other fuel, the dominant fuel source is natural gas. Boilers are commonly used for a variety of purposes by chemical manufactures, food processors, pulp and paper manufactures, and the petroleum and coal derivatives industries (including chemicals, coke, and coal tar). Twenty-two percent of the natural gas used in manufacturing is consumed in boilers. As with process heating, industrial boilers are dependent on natural gas, with 83 percent of boilers running on the fuel (Figure 2).
Often, power generation and process heating can be more efficiently accomplished by coproducing heat and power from a single unit with technology commonly called combined heat and power (CHP). Additional efficiencies and emission reductions are also achieved through the generation of electricity onsite, because it avoids transmission loss. In 2010, 14 percent of natural gas used in manufacturing was consumed by CHP and other power systems. As illustrated in Figure 2, natural gas dominates the fuel used for CHP. Nationwide, the added efficiencies of CHP systems avoid the annual emission of 35 million metric tons of CO2e.
|Figure 2: Direct Consumption of Fuels in the Industrial Sector|
CHP & Other Power
|Source: EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS), 2010|
For the chemicals industry, natural gas also serves a unique function, providing a chemical feedstock in the form of methane and liquids found in the natural gas, including ethane, propane, and butane. These liquids, especially ethane, are processed and transformed to become additional intermediate and final products. Chemical companies are particularly heavy users of natural gas as a feedstock and may consume up to two-thirds of their delivered natural gas for this purpose. While U.S. companies are reliant on low-cost natural gas liquids as a feedstock, European competitors use more expensive, oil-based naphtha. In 2010, for example, domestic ethane sold at half the price of imported naphtha in Europe, and, consequently, U.S. chemical manufactures have reaped a competitive advantage in international markets for intermediate and final goods. The emissions implications of using natural gas as a feedstock are very different from its other uses because feedstock use transforms hydrocarbon molecules into other products, rather than combusting them. Consequently, when natural gas is used as a feedstock, very few greenhouse gases are emitted.
Potential for Expanded Use in the Industrial Sector
Increased availability and low prices of natural gas have significant implications for domestic manufacturing, which has historically been concerned about supply availability and price volatility. Recently, abundant supply and low prices have led to an increase in domestic manufacturing, creating new jobs and economic value. Numerous companies have cited natural gas supply and price in announcing plans to open new facilities in the chemicals, plastics, steel, and other industries in the United States. In the past few years, the number of firms disclosing the positive impact of new gas resources for facility power generation and feedstock use to the Securities and Exchange Commission has increased substantially. In 2010, exports of basic chemicals and plastics increased 28 percent from the previous year, yielding a trade surplus of $16.4 billion. If the expectation that low prices will continue is correct, these economic benefits would be significant over the long term. A study by the American Chemistry Council, for instance, estimates that a 25 percent increase in ethane supplies would yield a $32.8 billion increase in U.S. chemical production. Industry, however, needs more than just abundance and low prices to maintain use of natural gas. Price stability is necessary to encourage long-term investments in industry, and increased natural gas supplies also have the potential to stabilize prices.
|Figure 3: CHP versus Conventional Production|
|Source: EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS), 2010|
Potential for Industrial Sector Emission Reductions
If supply remains robust and prices low and stable, the U.S. industrial sector is likely to reap substantial economic benefits from the increased availability of low-cost natural gas. Even as the sector expands, there are opportunities to reduce its emission intensity. Improving the efficiency of industrial boilers is one such opportunity. Boilers tend to have a low turnover rate, and very often older units are less efficient than newer ones. The pre-1985 fleet of boilers has an efficiency rate of between 65 percent and 70 percent; while new boilers have efficiency rates of between 77 percent and 82 percent and new, super–high-efficiency units can reach efficiency rates of up to 95 percent.
A Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) analysis found that replacing older natural gas boilers with high-efficiency or super-high-efficiency units would decrease CO2 emissions by 4,500 to 9,000 tons or more per year per boiler. The analysis also found a strong economic incentive to make these replacements, highlighting annualized monetary savings of 20 percent (given certain assumptions, including 2010 natural gas prices) with a payback period of 1.8 to 3.6 years for the new equipment.
|Figure 4: Projected Natural Gas Consumption (2009-2035) in…|
Projected Total Industrial Consumption of Natural Gas for Heat and Power
Projected Energy Consumption of Natural Gas for Heat and Power per Dollar of Shipments
Projected Total Industrial Consumption of Natural Gas Liquids Feedstock
Projected Energy Consumption Natural Gas Liquids Feedstock per Dollar of Shipments
Projected Total Industrial CHP Generation for All Fuels through 2035
|Source: EIA AEO 2012 Early Release, 2012|
While natural gas is the most commonly used fuel source for industrial boilers, 17 percent of boilers use coal or other fuels, as shown in Figure 2. Because of the air pollutants from these coal-fired boilers, these boilers are now subject to the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 2012 Mercury and Air Toxics Standards. MIT conducted a separate analysis to determine the results of replacing the affected coal boilers with efficient or super-high-efficiency natural gas boilers (these natural gas boilers are not regulated under the new EPA rule). This analysis found that replacement with natural gas boilers would reduce annual CO2 emissions by about 52,000 to 72,000 tons per year per boiler.
Increasing the use of CHP also has potential to reduce emissions. A 2008 Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) study analyzed the total U.S. energy system and calculated that increasing CHP’s share of total U.S. electricity generation capacity from 9 percent in 2008 to 20 percent by 2030 would lower U.S. GHG emissions by 600 million metric tons of CO2 compared to business as usual. Another study, by McKinsey & Company in 2009, sought to estimate the potential for expanding CHP by 2020 through net present value-positive investments. McKinsey estimated that the potential exists in the United States for an additional 50.4 GW of CHP capacity by 2020, which would avoid an estimated 100 million metric tons of CO2 emissions per year compared to business as usual. McKinsey found that 70 percent of the potential cost-effective incremental CHP capacity was through large-scale industrial cogeneration systems greater than 50MW.
While CHP results in few GHG emissions, barriers currently limit its application. Utilities often cite safety concerns as a barrier to deployment, particularly a fear of miscommunication between CHP operators and utilities in the event of an emergency, which utilities say could lead to dangerous situations where line workers are not certain whether lines are energized or not. Utilities may also have concerns about liability and risk associated with the interconnection between CHP operations and the grid, as utility employees may be affected by safety and technical decisions of CHP operators made independent of utilities. Like issues of safety, many utilities are concerned about the need to provide backup power to industrial facilities in case CHP systems are taken offline or are otherwise unavailable. For utilities, the ability to provide backup power to these facilities requires investments in capacity, and to pay for this capacity, utilities often charge higher, discriminatory rates and interconnection fees to CHP operators to compensate for these necessary investments.
In addition to these concerns, regulatory and corporate policies have inhibited the growth of CHP capacity. Power sector regulation in many states leads many utilities to view CHP as unprofitable and, accordingly, discourages its use. However, some innovative policy approaches can overcome this problem. One approach is decoupling, which eliminates the connection between utility sales volume and profitability. By doing so, decoupling makes CHP measures profitable to utilities, and, therefore, more likely to gain their support. Another potential policy solution is the implementation of lost-revenue adjustment policy, which compensates utilities for revenues lost because of efficiency measures. It allows utilities to collect a charge from customers to account for efficiency-related revenue losses. Lost-revenue adjustment policies also have the potential to encourage CHP. Other policy options include state incentives designed to encourage the use of CHP. State-level policies include standardizing interconnection guidelines, tax incentives, and inclusion of CHP as a compliance mechanism for clean energy standards. Some states have enacted these policies, but, as with many state-led policies, there is a diversity of approaches to, and success with, implementation.
Rooftop solar received a major boost in California with a new ruling from state regulators on May 24. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) voted unanimously to reinterpret a cap on its net-metering program, more than doubling the potential amount of rooftop solar in the state.
Net metering provides a financial incentive for small businesses and homeowners to install energy generation on-site, usually solar photovoltaic panels. Any electricity in excess of customer usage is sold back to the utility at the retail rate – higher than the wholesale rate earned by traditional generators. This is credited to the customer's bill to offset consumption from the grid when the customer's electricity demand exceeds their own generation.
However, the program was approaching a cap that the utilities were allowed to set. This limited each utility’s available net-metering capacity to five percent of its "aggregated customer peak demand." Utility companies had previously interpreted this to mean their highest overall demand on one particular day. Using this definition, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), the state’s largest electric utility, was expected to reach its limit in 2013, after which it would no longer accept participants. The new decision expands the cap by defining "aggregated customer peak demand" as the sum of the highest electricity demand of each utility customer. This more than doubles the potential size of the program from the current 1.2 gigawatts (GW) to 4 GW, according to Environment California. This is about six percent of California’s net summer capacity.
Utilities oppose the expansion, arguing that by paying less or no money on their bills, net-metering participants are passing on their fair share of system costs onto other customers. These costs include payments for transmission grid upgrades and maintenance, low-income customer assistance programs, and municipal electricity systems. PG&E has 65,000 net-metering customers out of a total of 5.1 million.
Clean energy supporters and the solar industry say that the program has been critical in driving development of the industry. The net-metering program has already brought in over one billion dollars of investment to California. In a statement, CPUC President Michael Peevey said, "Today’s decision ensures that the solar industry will continue to thrive for years to come, and we are fully committed to developing a long-term solution that secures the future of the industry in California."
The CPUC will commission a study analyzing the costs and benefits of solar net metering, including its impact on nonparticipants. Unless new policies are adopted, the net-metering program will be closed to new customers on January 1, 2015.
California leads the U.S. in installed solar energy capacity, whether it’s distributed rooftop installations or utility-scale solar farms. Indeed, PG&E's net-metering customers alone represent one-third of U.S. total rooftop solar capacity. In 2011, California installed 542.2 megawatts of solar photovoltaic panels, the highest amount in the nation and more than doubling its existing capacity in 2010. Much of this is due to the state’s plethora of policies, rebates, and incentives at all levels of government, from utility loans to city-level rebates to the $3.2 billion state-wide California Solar Initiative. In addition, the state is home to over 1,000 companies in the solar industry, employing more than 25,000 people.
For more information:
CPUC Press Release: CPUC takes action to support solar by clarifying net-metering cap
Wall Street Journal: California Expands Rooftop Solar-Power Program
Solar Energy Industries Association: California Solar Fact Sheet (pdf)
Clean Technica: 2011 U.S. Solar Market Report – Top 7 Findings & Charts
June 6, 2012
Contact: Rebecca Matulka, 703-516-4146, firstname.lastname@example.org
Report Highlights Climate Change Risks to Key Gulf Coast Industries
Recommends Steps to Reduce Impacts on Region’s Energy and Fishing Sectors
Climate change is already having major impacts on the Gulf Coast region and action is needed to protect its vital industries from the likely impacts of continued warming, according to a new report from the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES).
The report, Impacts and Adaptation Options in the Gulf Coast, examines the risks that climate change poses to the region’s energy and fishing industries, and to its residents and local governments. It concludes that climate impacts are already being felt across these sectors, and outlines measures that can be taken to adapt to the growing risks, reducing the region’s vulnerability and the costs associated with future impacts.
The convergence of several geographical characteristics—an unusually flat terrain both offshore and inland, ongoing land subsidence, dwindling wetlands, and fewer barrier islands than along other coasts—make the Gulf Coast region especially vulnerable to climate change. Among the impacts and risks cited in the report:
- Over the past century, both air and water temperatures have been on the rise across the region;
- Rising ocean temperatures heighten hurricane intensity, and recent years have seen a number of large, damaging hurricanes;
- In some Gulf Coast locations, local sea level is increasing at over ten times the global rate, increasing the risk of severe flooding; and
- Saltwater intrusion from rising sea levels damages wetlands, an important line of coastal defense against storm surge and spawning grounds for commercially valuable fish and shellfish.
“Nowhere else in the U.S. do we see the same convergence of critical energy infrastructure and high vulnerability to climate change,” said C2ES President Eileen Claussen. “These risks are not borne by the Gulf Coast alone. A major energy supply disruption, for instance, would be felt nationwide. We must respond on two fronts: We have to work harder to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change. And we must take steps, in the Gulf Coast and elsewhere, to prepare for the impacts that can’t be avoided.”
The report’s lead author is Hal Needham, a researcher at Louisiana State University’s Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) and an expert on hurricane storm surges in the Gulf Coast. The co-authors are David Brown, an assistant professor in LSU’s Department of Geography and Anthropology, and Lynne Carter, associate director of SCIPP.
In their analysis of the Gulf Coast’s energy industry, which comprises about 90 percent of the region’s industrial assets, the authors found significant risks from hurricanes, sea level rise, rising temperatures and drought. The report noted the considerable damage the energy industry sustained from recent hurricanes in 2004, 2005 and 2008. Thirty percent of the nation’s refineries are located in Texas and Louisiana, and Louisiana Offshore Oil Port in Port Fourchon is the country’s only deep-water oil import facility. At its current elevation, Louisiana Highway 1, the only access to the port, is projected to be flooded 300 days a year by 2050.
For the region’s other major industry, fishing, the report details major infrastructure risks, especially relating to coastal docking and fish processing. Fish and shellfish populations are also vulnerable to climate impacts, with a combination of warmer water, ocean acidification, and excessive runoff from the Mississippi River combining to increase the risk of large-scale changes in the Gulf ecosystem.
The authors emphasize that advance planning can reduce the region’s vulnerability and the costs incurred from future climate impacts.
For the energy sector, adaptation strategies include learning from recent hurricanes to more rigorously assess vulnerabilities; strengthening design standards for drilling platforms and other infrastructure; and undertaking projects such as the planned raising of sections of Highway 1 to Port Fourchon. To reduce vulnerability in the fishing industry, options include strengthening docking facilities and other infrastructure subject to storm surges, and limiting fertilizer use upstream on the Mississippi River to reduce the incidence of hypoxia (oxygen-starved waters) in the Gulf.
“Climate change is already taking a toll on the Gulf Coast, but if we act now to become more resilient, we can reduce the risks, save billions in future costs, and preserve a way of life,” said Needham. “The Gulf Coast is one of the first regions to feel the impacts of climate change. It only makes sense to be a first mover on climate adaptation as well.”
The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) is an independent non-profit, non-partisan organization promoting strong policy and action to address the twin challenges of energy and climate change. Launched in November 2011, C2ES is the successor to the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, long recognized in the United States and abroad as an influential and pragmatic voice on climate issues. C2ES is led by Eileen Claussen, who previously led the Pew Center and is the former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs.
Impacts and Adaptation Options in the Gulf Coast
by Hal Needman, David Brown, and Lynne Carter
The central and western U.S. Gulf Coast is increasingly vulnerable to a range of potential hazards associated with climate change. Hurricanes are high-profile hazards that threaten this region with strong winds, heavy rain, storm surge and high waves. Sea-level rise is a longer-term hazard that threatens to exacerbate storm surges, and increases the rate of coastal erosion and wetland loss. Loss of wetlands threatens to damage the fragile coastal ecosystem and accelerates the rate of coastal erosion.
These hazards threaten to inflict economic and ecological losses in this region, as well as loss of life during destructive hurricanes. In addition, they impact vital economic sectors, such as the energy and fishing industries, which are foundational to the local and regional economy. Impacts to these sectors are also realized on a national scale; Gulf oil and gas is used throughout the country to heat homes, power cars, and generate a variety of products, such as rubber and plastics, while seafood from the region is shipped to restaurants across the country.
This report reviews observed and projected changes for each of these hazards, as well as potential impacts and adaptation options. Information about the scale and relative importance of the energy and fishing industries is also provided, as well as insight into potential vulnerabilities of these industries to climate change. This report also identifies some adaptation options for those industries.
On April 14, 2012, Florida enacted H.B. 7117, the state’s first comprehensive energy law in four years. Passing with overwhelming bipartisan majorities in the House and Senate, the law includes several provisions for clean energy, including a renewal of renewable electricity production tax credits that were allowed to expire in 2010. Independent analysis suggests the law’s package of incentives will support around 3,000 jobs in all economic sectors and generate tax revenue that will match and exceed the cost of the incentives within a three year window.
Among the law’s key provisions are:
- A production tax credit of $0.01 per kilowatt-hour of renewable electricity. For fiscal year 2012-2013, up to $5 million of credits may be claimed, while $10 million of credits will be available annually from fiscal year 2013-2014 through fiscal year 2016-2017.
- An investment tax credit for capital costs, operations and maintenance, and research and development costs related to investment in the production, storage, and distribution of biodiesel, ethanol, and other renewable fuels. Up to $10 million of credits will be available annually from July 2012 to July 2016.
- Mechanisms to support residential and commercial energy efficiency improvements, rebates for renewable energy technologies, and rules for awarding the bill’s incentives.
- Rescission of a directive for the Public Service Commission to develop a Renewable Portfolio Standard of 20% renewable energy by 2020.
- The new law also removes some barriers to electric vehicle charging by defining it as a public service.
Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Commissioner, Adam H. Putnam, said, “The bill offers technology-agnostic tax credits to businesses that demonstrate investment in energy production and create jobs in Florida. Any form of renewable energy is eligible; the market will determine how investments are made.” Overall, supporters of H.B. 7117 view it as an important step for establishing a long-term energy policy in Florida and encouraging investment in renewable energy.
My C2ES colleague, Judi Greenwald, will be testifying on Thursday at a hearing of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee on the Clean Energy Standard Act of 2012, a bill written by Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM), the committee chairman. As mentioned in my previous blogs (The Bingaman Clean Energy Standard: Let the Conversation Begin and The Bingaman Clean Energy Standard: What is "Clean"?) and in our primer on the design of a clean energy standard (CES), we think a CES holds a lot of potential for maintaining a diverse energy mix, advancing clean energy technology and associated industries, and reducing the environmental footprint of the electric power sector—including the sector's greenhouse gas emissions, which account for about one third of the U.S. total.
As Judi will attest, we also think Sen. Bingaman's bill is a great start, and balances the multiple objectives we would have for such a measure. On Thursday, we get to hear what a few other people think.
Watch this space Thursday morning as I live blog from the hearing and post updates below.
Update May 17, 11:58 am: It’s a standing-room-only crowd at this morning’s hearing before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee on Senator Jeff Bingaman’s proposal for a federal clean energy standard.
Senators in attendance: Committee chairman Sen. Bingaman (D-NM), top committee Republican Sen. Murkowski (R-AK), Barrasso (R-WY), Cantwell (D-WA), Coons (D-DE), Corker (R-TN), Franken (D-MN), Manchin (D-WV), Risch (R-ID), Shaheen (D-NH), Udall (D-CO), Wyden (D-OR)
Here are some highlights of the question-and-answer session during the hearing’s first panel, with witnesses David Sandalow, Assistant Secretary for Policy and International Affairs at the U.S. Department of Energy, and Dr. Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator of the Energy Information Administration:
Sen. Bingaman pointed out that EIA projects that electricity rates would increase by 2035 under the CES, but then asked how would electricity bills will be affected. Mr. Sandalow answered that the modeling shows that the average household energy bill would actually decline by $5 a month by 2035, in large part because of the energy efficiency promoted by the bill. Dr. Gruenspecht agreed.
Sen. Murkowski asked whether the cost of renewable energy being used by federal agencies under the Energy Policy Act of 2007 is an indication of the costs that would be seen under Sen. Bingaman’s bill. Mr. Sandalow pointed out that a key difference between Sen. Bingaman’s bill and the 2007 law is that the CES would give credit not only for renewable energy, but for nuclear power, natural gas, and clean coal, which would lead to lower prices than renewable energy alone.
Sen. Barrasso asked whether the Obama administration would rescind greenhouse gas regulations promulgated under the Clean Air Act if Sen. Bingaman’s bill were enacted. Mr. Sandalow said the administration would not support such an amendment to the Clean Air Act. For the record, C2ES believes that if a CES, or any other measure, led to significant reductions in GHG emissions from a given economic sector, we should be open to using that measure rather than the existing provisions of the Clean Air Act that pertain to that sector.
Sen. Franken suggested that it might be worth setting aside a fraction of the bill’s requirement for clean energy specifically for renewable energy. In fact, while most states have renewable energy standards in place, four—Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia—have alternative energy standards, similar to Sen. Bingaman’s clean energy standard proposal, and each of the four takes an approach that favors renewable energy sources over the other qualifying clean energy sources.
Update May 17, 1:55 pm: Here are some quick notes on the second panel of this morning’s hearing. The room is still full even though many of the Senators and journalists have left—thus missing a discussion on preemption that was arguably the most noteworthy exchange of the entire hearing.
After the opening statements, Senators Bingaman and Murkowski had an extended back-and-forth with the panelists about the overlap between the Bingaman bill and other regulatory programs. The panelists offered a range of views, with a couple supporting preemption of the Clean Air Act authority. C2ES’s Judi Greenwald expressed a more nuanced view:
The key issue is environmental results. If a CES is ambitious enough, and can achieve greater environmental benefits than we can get under existing Clean Air Act Authority, it might make sense to consider replacing some Clean Air Act provisions with a CES. However, we need to be very cautious. The Clean Air Act has very broad authority to address GHG emissions throughout the economy and the CES only applies to power plants. We would need to ensure that EPA maintains its authority to continue to make progress in other sectors, for example, as with the successful greenhouse gas standards for vehicles.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle to exploring this issue is the deep partisan divide over EPA and the Clean Air Act. With members of Congress calling for an evisceration of EPA and the Clean Air Act, there is a legitimate concern that opening up the Act for an ostensibly narrow revision would lead to a gutting of provisions having nothing to do with greenhouse gases.
On another topic, Sen. Franken discussed Minnesota’s energy efficiency resource standard, and asked whether incentives for energy efficiency could be incorporated into the Bingaman bill. Judi Greenwald pointed out that many of the bill’s features would indeed promote energy efficiency: crediting of combined heat and power, the use of revenues raised through the alternative compliance payment, and the very structure of the proposed standard—it would be set as a percentage of total electricity production; if electricity use goes down, the requirement is easier to meet.
One thing we wish we could've said:
During the first panel, Sen. Corker said carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be broadly deployed when donkeys fly. Sen. Manchin, who takes a decidedly more favorable view towards CCS, was nevertheless concerned that the bill does not promote CCS.
Here's what we would have said, had they raised those points during the second panel:
While EIA projects that CCS is not deployed under the bill, it could be. CCS could play a bigger role under this bill if we can bring down its costs. There are a number of options for doing that. For example, C2ES co-convenes the National Enhanced Oil Recovery Initiative, which is calling for a federal tax credit to capture and transport CO2 from power plants and industrial sources for use in enhanced oil recovery. In addition to driving a lot of domestic oil production, and reducing CO2 emissions, it would generate additional revenue to cover the cost of CCS. We would expect that as CCS costs come down, it would enable coal to have a bigger role. A CES could help in other ways as well. AEP put the Mountaineer project on hold and withdrew from its partnership with DOE on this project because regulators in several states could not justify the expense for a technology that is not required by law. The CES could make the case for projects like Mountaineer to go forward.
Keynote speech by Eileen Claussen, President of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions
11th Annual Conference on Carbon Capture, Utilization and Sequestration
May 1, 2012
Thank you very much. It is a pleasure to be here in Pittsburgh. And I want to thank Exchange Monitor Publications and Forums, together with the Department of Energy and the National Energy Technology Laboratory and their partnering organizations, for convening this very timely and very important conference.
Everything is so well organized and the breakfast spread was so perfect and so tantalizing … for a moment I thought I was at an event put together by the General Services Administration.
I also congratulate you for putting added emphasis this year on the utilization of carbon emissions and for changing the title of the conference to reflect this … Now it can officially be said that this is the event that put the “you” in CCS. If only we could add an “A” word to the end and make it CCUSA, then we could add some patriotic flair to this whole endeavor.
In all seriousness, I want to talk with you today about why CCS (or any acronym we choose to employ for it) is so important … not just for the future of fossil fuels—but also for the future of this country and its efforts to get a handle on the twin challenges of energy and climate change.
And I also want to discuss one of the most promising technologies available for making large-scale CCS a reality. I am talking, of course, about CO2-enhanced oil recovery, or CO2-EOR, which is an issue that my organization has been working intently on as a co-convener of the National Enhanced Oil Recovery Initiative.
Whether you spend the bulk of your waking hours worrying about the potential dangers of climate change or not, CO2-EOR makes a huge amount of sense for a number of reasons that I intend to go over later in my remarks. But first I want to talk about why we are even having this conversation and why the United States and the world must finally get serious about taking full advantage of big opportunities CO2-EOR.
When it comes to energy and climate, the United States stands at a crossroads today. Indeed, we are standing there with the rest of the world. At this crossroads, we have a choice to make. We can continue with a business-as-usual or status quo approach to energy and climate issues. If that’s what we choose, we’ll continue to face the same questions and the same concerns not just about the environment and climate change but about energy-related risks to our national security, our economy and jobs, and more.
Or we can choose a new road to the future--that protects our economy, our security and our climate for decades to come.
The environmental case for doing this is compelling enough. According to most scenarios, global emissions of greenhouse gases need to peak by 2015 in order to have a reasonable chance of limiting global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius. This is the level where many scientists say we can manage the risks of climate change, but there is considerable debate even on this point and some think we will already be flirting with disaster at 2 degrees Celsius.
Whatever the case, 2015 is just three years away. Are emissions showing any signs of peaking? Not even close … After a brief downturn due to the recession, newly released figures from the EPA show that U.S. emissions resumed their upward march in 2010, rising by 3.2 percent compared to 2009. And global emissions are projected to grow 17 percent by 2020, and 37 percent by 2035. Under that scenario, we could see average global temperatures rise 3 to 4 degrees Celsius by 2100.
But, even if you are an ardent skeptic of the science of climate change or of our ability to dramatically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, the energy case should be motivation enough for abandoning the status quo and following a new and different road to the future.
What do we care about? Reliability. Affordability. Security. Reduced environmental impact. These have to be the hallmarks of U.S. energy policy going forward, and carbon capture and storage can and must be an important component of that policy. It provides us with the means to continue using fossil fuels in a carbon–constrained future. It is especially critical for producing electricity from both coal and natural gas, while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Coal, of course, has the most at stake in this discussion. Coal, in fact, is at a crossroads itself. The latest figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration confirm that coal’s share of U.S. electricity generation is decreasing.
In 2006, coal-fired generation accounted for more than half (50.4 percent to be exact) of the total generation mix in this country. By the end of 2011, that figure had declined to 43.4 percent of the mix, a drop of 7 percentage points. The biggest factor in coal’s relative decline, of course, is dropping natural gas prices. According to EIA, natural gas prices are forecast to remain below $5 per million BTUs for the next 10 years. This is why we’re seeing so many new natural gas power plants. EIA’s latest estimates for 2011 and 2012 show around 20 gigawatts of added capacity planned for natural gas versus around 9 gigawatts for coal. Add to this the spare capacity of existing gas-fired power plants that were built to generate electricity during the daytime hours only and you can see the challenges facing coal.
New EPA rules also pose challenges for coal. The new Mercury Rule alone, which was issued last December, will affect 1,325 units at 525 power plants of all types around the United States. Some of these plants are more than 50 years old, and companies may retire older plants rather than paying to install new pollution control equipment.
In addition, there is EPA’s Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) and, on the industrial side, the 2011 rule imposing new emissions reductions requirements on coal-fired boilers. And most notably, of course, earlier this spring the EPA proposed the first-ever national standards for limiting greenhouse gas emissions from new power plants. In order to comply with the rules, new plants would have to install carbon capture and storage technologies. There is essentially no other way for these plants to reduce their emissions to the level required under this proposal.
After detailing all of these challenges for coal, I am inclined to ask the question, “Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?”
The proposed GHG rules make it official: In order to keep coal’s share of the U.S. energy mix from declining further, we need to throw out old ways of thinking. We need to think big. This is not just about trying to compete with natural gas on price; it is about embracing new ideas and new technologies to ensure that coal can continue as a fuel of choice in a world that, whether you like it or not, will become increasingly focused on limiting and reducing carbon emissions.
Coal alone is responsible for 28 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Worldwide, 43 percent of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion come from coal. Clearly, something has to give. In order for the world to get a handle on the climate problem, and in order for coal to hold onto its place as a major energy source in the decades to come, we need to show – and very quickly – that it is possible to achieve substantial cuts in emissions from coal-fired power generation.
In other words, we need to find a low-carbon solution for coal. And coal is not our only challenge – we need all the low-carbon and carbon-free technologies we can get. The good news about natural gas is that it generates half of the emissions of coal when used as a fuel source. But that’s also the not-so-good news about natural gas; it still generates substantial emissions, and in order to achieve the level of reductions that will reduce the risk of climate change, we need CCS for natural gas as well as for coal.
The potential for CCS to reduce emissions is undeniable. Studies show that CCS technology could reduce CO2 emissions from a coal-fueled power plant by as much as 90 percent. Modeling done by the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that CCS could provide 19 percent of total global GHG emission reductions by 2050. That includes reductions from coal and natural gas-fired power plants, as well as all other sources.
But these are just studies, they are merely estimates of what could happen if CCS finally emerges from the world of drawing boards and demonstration projects to actual widespread deployment throughout this country and around the world. What we are doing right now to develop these technologies is not enough; it’s not even close to enough. We have two decades at most to deploy these technologies at the scale needed to achieve substantial reductions in emissions.
And one way to start is by taking a more serious approach to the development of CO2-Enhanced Oil Recovery in this country.
For nearly 15 years, my organization has sought to bring industry, government, NGOs and others together to explore innovative solutions to the climate and energy challenges we face in the United States and around the world. We see CO2-EOR as a very important piece of the puzzle. And this is why we worked with the Great Plains Institute to convene the National Enhanced Oil Recovery Initiative, or NEORI. NEORI is a coalition of industry, state, environmental and labor leaders who have come together to develop and present recommendations for boosting domestic oil production and reducing CO2 emissions through the expanded use of CO2-EOR.
The participants in this effort believe that EOR using captured carbon dioxide offers a safe and commercially proven method of expanding domestic oil production that can help the U.S. simultaneously address three urgent national priorities.
- The first priority is increasing our nation’s energy security by reducing dependence on foreign oil, including oil that is imported from unstable and hostile nations. CO2-EOR potential in the United States equals 26 to 61 billion barrels of oil with existing technology; with next-generation techniques the potential rises to 67 to around 140 billion barrels. U.S. proven reserves are 20 billion barrels, so we are talking about at least doubling U.S. oil potential. That’s huge.
- The second priority that CO2-EOR addresses is creating economic opportunity – if we do this right, it will create jobs, boost tax revenues, and reduce the U.S. trade deficit. We can put dollars we now spend on oil imports to work right here in the U.S. economy. How much money are we talking about? One estimate, from Advanced Resources International, projects that the reduction in oil imports associated with CO2-EOR would total $600 billion by 2030.
- And the third priority addressed by CO2-EOR? Protecting the environment. Capturing and storing CO2 from industrial facilities and power plants will reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, while getting more American crude from areas already developed for oil and gas production. By fully developing American reserves that are amenable to this practice, we could reduce CO2 emissions by 10 billion to 19 billion tons, an amount equal to 10 to 20 years of emissions from personal vehicle use in this country. And the bonus is that it can help us further the commercial deployment of the CCS industry in this country — not just with coal and natural gas power plants, but with other domestic industries such as natural gas processing, ethanol and ammonia production, and steel and cement manufacturing. Driving innovation in CCS technology will allow us both to take advantage of our nation’s vast fossil fuel resources and achieve much larger CO2 emission reductions.
I have worked on the climate issue for many years now, and I assure you this is a big deal. Reducing U.S. CO2 emissions by up to 19 billion tons while also advancing CCS technology would be a major achievement.
So if CO2-EOR is so important, why aren’t we doing more of it? Well, as all of you know, the major hurdle standing in our way is that there’s just not enough readily available CO2. And this is why our organization joined with the Great Plains Institute to convene the NEORI.
The idea behind this initiative was to bring together a diverse group of stakeholders and try to come to agreement about what needs to happen to realize CO2-EOR’s potential. More specifically, we wanted to develop a set of recommendations for federal and state incentives that will stimulate the expansion of CO2-EOR using carbon dioxide from power plants and industrial facilities.
Were these conversations easy? In a word, no. This is a group that included participants ranging from major coal companies and industrial suppliers of CO2 to environmental NGOs, organized labor, and state officials. The diversity of the group meant we had some very tough discussions. But in the spirit of the saying, “Nothing that is worthwhile is easy,” the final participants in this project stuck with it, and they came up with a plan that already has attracted bipartisan interest in Congress. We released this plan earlier this year at an event on Capitol Hill, and I want to give you a quick sense of what it entails.
NEORI’s centerpiece recommendation is a competitively awarded, revenue-positive federal production tax credit for capturing and transporting CO2 to stimulate CO2-EOR expansion. This federal tax credit would more than pay for itself because it will lead to additional oil production subject to existing tax treatment. The new incentive will enable a variety of industry sectors to market new sources of CO2 to the oil industry, and to reduce their carbon footprints. It will drive innovation and cost reduction in CO2 capture and compression, and help build out a national CO2 pipeline system.
For the near term and until the broader credit is in place, NEORI also recommends specific “good government” changes to improve the workability of the existing carbon capture and storage credit known as Section 45Q.
Of course, states also have an important role to play in fostering CO2-EOR deployment. This is why NEORI identifies existing state policies that should serve as models for policymakers in other states to adopt and tailor to their particular needs.
Later this morning, you will hear more about our recommendations from a panel of NEORI participants. And I encourage you to visit the website, www.neori.org, for more on the recommendations we have made.
So let’s cut to the chase. What will happen if we adopt these measures I have described? NEORI estimates that our proposed new federal production tax credit for CO2 capture will quadruple the amount of domestic oil currently produced annually through enhanced oil recovery – to 400 million barrels a year in the outyears – while cutting CO2 emissions by 4 billion tons over the next 40 years. In addition, we will be generating new tax revenue for states and for the federal government – as I said, these incentives will more than pay for themselves. And we will be gaining vital experience and creating valuable infrastructure supporting broader deployment of carbon capture and sequestration in the future.
At a time of economic struggle, fiscal crisis and political gridlock, at C2ES we believe the NEORI proposal is an encouraging example of how we can and must make progress on the climate and energy challenges we face. As much as we would like to see comprehensive solutions to our climate and energy challenges, those solutions are not on the immediate horizon. But if we come at these issues one by one, look for opportunities where interests converge, and are open to compromise, we can arrive at practical solutions benefiting our economy, our security and the environment.
At the Capitol Hill event where NEORI announced our recommendations in February, we also were able to welcome a bipartisan group of members of Congress who were on hand to express their support. Given the political gridlock in Washington in this election year, it was reassuring to see lawmakers from both political parties step up and say they agree that this is important work.
Will we see comprehensive legislation on this issue pass the Congress this year? That’s unlikely … but we do think we have a shot at Section 45Q reform this year. Still, the NEORI recommendations have started the conversation and we feel optimistic that we can see progress on this issue in the not-too-distant future no matter who controls the Presidency and the Congress next year.
All of which brings me to the closing segment of my remarks today, in which I simply want to appeal to all of you to help us keep pushing these issues forward.
Rarely in the current political climate do Republican and Democratic lawmakers in Washington rally together in support of anything. So we need to make the most of this opportunity. Everyone who supports CO2-EOR has an obligation to educate their representatives in Washington and in state capitals around the country about the benefits this can deliver for our economy, our national security and the environment.
We also need to help the general public understand what’s at stake here … why we need to reduce emissions, why CO2 use and sequestration in depleted oil fields is an important solution, and what this can mean for the future of our country, and for the future of fossil fuels as well.
Thank you very much.
Learn about Mexico's new climate change law, how the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy helps move the U.S. to a low-carbon economy, the different market mechanisms for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and more in C2ES's April 2012 newsletter.
Eileen Claussen, President of C2ES
Opening Remarks for Low-Carbon Innovation Forum
April 24, 2012
Thank you very much. On behalf of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, I want to welcome you to our latest forum on low-carbon innovation. As we gather here to talk about the role of innovation in addressing the twin challenges of energy and climate change, I am reminded of the story of the first-grade teacher who was reading the story of Chicken Little to her class. She comes to the part of the story where Chicken Little approaches the farmer and says to him, “The sky is falling, the sky is falling!” The teacher then asks her students, “And what do you think the farmer said next?”
One little girl in the front row of the class raises her hand and answers, “I suppose he said, ‘Holy cow! It’s a talking chicken!’”
In today’s political environment, it’s hard sometimes not to feel like that talking chicken when we bring up the important issues of energy and climate change. Sometimes it seems that no one really wants to pay attention to what we’re saying. It’s hard to get past the posturing and the politics to a place where there’s a possibility of real attention to these issues and real action.
Well, I am here to tell you this morning that we have to get to that place where people pay attention to us … and we have to get there as soon as possible. Spurring low-carbon innovation must be a national priority and I want to use my remarks to set the stage for the three excellent panels that will follow, dealing with the respective roles of business and government in this work.
Most of what we hear in Washington these days about public-private collaboration to advance low-carbon technologies revolves around a single example where things did not turn out well. I’m speaking, of course, of Solyndra. But whatever the truth ultimately proves to be —whether Solyndra is a case of undue political influence, or simply a casualty of a market shakeout — this one, overblown example hardly tells the full story. As we will hear in the course of the morning, both government and business have vital roles to play at every stage on the path to commercialization. And to ignore or undermine the role played by government is to risk losing the fight against climate change and our competitive positioning in the growing clean energy market.
It’s important to remember first and foremost what this work is about: it is about addressing two of the most important challenges facing our country and the world in the years ahead — the twin challenges of energy and climate change. And, even if you are an ardent skeptic of the science of climate change or of our ability to reduce emissions to a level where we can actually have a discernible impact on global temperature trends, the case for addressing our energy challenges should be motivation enough.
Innovation in low-carbon technologies isn’t crucial solely because it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as important as that is. It is also crucial because it will reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, contribute to our energy security and our national security, and drive economic growth and U.S. competitiveness in the years ahead.
When we do a full accounting of the environmental and the economic and national security costs of our energy status quo in this country, we see that the old ways of doing things just aren’t sustainable. So what’s the solution?
Well, in the short term, there are steps we can take right now to conserve energy, switch to low-carbon fuels and deploy more efficient technologies. But over the long term, achieving change on the scale that is needed will require new technologies. And we need to seed the technologies of tomorrow by investing right now in low-carbon innovation.
This is not just a necessity; it is also a huge opportunity. Business leaders from Bill Gates to Jeff Immelt to Andrew Liveris agree that energy innovation is the next great global industry. With world energy consumption expected to grow by 40 percent in the next two decades alone, this is a growth opportunity that could rival what we’ve seen in recent decades with the growth of computing and the Internet.
But our research at C2ES shows that innovation in the energy industry doesn’t come easy. It takes time and one of the keys to success is making sure you have the right industries and the right partners working together.
Our research also shows that forward-thinking companies, including some of the companies you will hear from today, are developing innovative technologies that could be part of the long-term solution to our energy and climate challenges. Last October, we released a report called The Business of Innovating: Bringing Low-Carbon Solutions to Market, which was developed with members of the our Business Environmental Leadership Council (BELC) and included a survey of leading companies, a series of BELC workshops, and in-depth case studies of eight low-carbon innovation projects from four multinational companies. Here were some of the key findings:
- First, companies emphasized the importance of business leaders or internal champions highlighting the strong contribution that low-carbon innovation can make to the bottom line and to future growth.
- Second, business executives stressed that reductions in carbon emissions alone will not make low-carbon innovations successful in the marketplace; the innovations must also bring bottom-line value in terms of total cost reduction, enhanced performance, or competitive edge.
- And third, the report notes the importance of balancing long-term vision and short-term profitability. Companies that are able to successfully commercialize low-carbon innovations have a constant focus on core competencies and customer needs today, while also studying the changing technical, market, and policy landscape of the future.
The report also laid out the huge opportunities that are out there for businesses that embrace low-carbon innovation. By 2020, total investment in clean energy alone — that includes everything from renewable power to technologies that improve energy efficiency, such as the smart grid — is expected to reach $2.3 trillion. For the United States to sit back and allow other nations to assume a leadership role in meeting these needs would be, frankly, irresponsible.
Business is innovating, as we found in our report. But business cannot do this work alone. Our research confirmed that there are considerable barriers standing in the way of individual companies and industries as they try to move low-carbon solutions from the laboratory to full-scale commercialization.
Among the companies we studied, one of the biggest of these barriers is what we refer to as “policy uncertainty.” Climate policy is on the back burner, as all of us know very well, and the nation’s elected leaders also can’t seem to come to agreement on a comprehensive energy policy. The result is that companies are left to guess for themselves what type of policy environment they will be operating in five or ten years from now. The current state of affairs makes it a huge challenge for business to make strategic bets on what energy products and services to bring to market.
I will say it again: Business and government each play critical roles in the innovation process. And if we want to develop the low-carbon technologies that will help us protect our environment, our energy security and our economy in the years to come, government needs to be a part of the solution.
And so in today’s panels we are looking at three of the ways in which government plays a vital role alongside business in advancing low-carbon innovation in this country.
First … government must continue to support basic research, development, and demonstration. We need to keep evaluating and investing in the next generation of low-carbon energy technologies. Tools we rely on everyday — from the Internet to GPS — came out of research supported by the Department of Defense.
Some of the breakthrough technologies enabling the natural gas boom in the United States were made possible by investments in research, development and demonstration from the Department of Energy and national labs. It is estimated that U.S. shale gas can now meet our domestic gas needs for the next 100 years — that’s a pretty good return on our taxpayer investments.
In 2007, Congress created ARPA-E — the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Energy — to help support the development of breakthrough energy technologies. It’s absolutely vital that government continue to invest in these types of efforts.
The second role of government that we will explore today is government procurement. Through its purchasing power, the government can help create a market for innovative technologies. The government’s operational needs provide a large, early market for scaling up newly commercialized low-carbon technologies, which can then be adopted for private-sector use as well. For instance, the Department of Defense is the single largest consumer of energy in the country, and is very quickly realizing how improved energy technologies can save taxpayers millions. Military bases are becoming important markets for energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies. Other federal and state agencies also are adopting low-carbon technologies that can ease tight budgets by reducing energy expenses. Government procurement can quickly move technologies up the learning curve and down the cost curve, helping these innovations become competitive in the broader marketplace.
And last but not least, we will have a panel today discussing the role of government standards and incentives in driving mass deployment. Time and time again, such public policies have driven the adoption of innovative technologies across the economy. Government plays a critical role as “standards-setter” for industries. Federal and state standards create incentives for companies to make long-term investments in innovation, and create demand for the resulting products.
A particularly strong example is the recent steps by the Obama Administration to significantly increase fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards for vehicles. In February, U.S. auto sales reached their highest level in four years, and the Big Three automakers all cite higher sales of smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles as a contributing factor. Two years ago, the Smart Car was the only conventional car available in the U.S. with a fuel economy rating of 40 miles a gallon or better. Today there are nine. The EPA estimates that the new standards will save the average driver $8,000 over the lifetime of a vehicle and reduce oil consumption by over 2 million barrels a day.
So those are three roles we will be exploring today as we talk about how government can help drive low-carbon innovation. Government as supporter of research, development and demonstration. Government as purchaser and market-creator. And government as a standard-setter driving mass deployment. It promises to be a very interesting and provocative morning, even though we don’t have any talking chickens on the agenda.
Thank you very much.
Remarks of Elliot Diringer, Executive Vice President of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions
Deputy Minister's Speaker Series-Environment Canada
April 19, 2012
I’ve been asked to talk today about the international picture – about where the U.N. climate negotiations might be headed after Durban. And I promise I will eventually work my way toward that topic.
But I’d like to start with some reflections on a few recent events in Washington–events that I think in many ways sum up where we stand in our struggle with climate change.
This past weekend, some of you might know, Washington celebrated its annual Cherry Blossom Festival. This was a special year – the festival’s 100th anniversary. Tens of thousands of people from around the world joined in the festivities. There was only one problem: no cherry blossoms. They’d already come and gone – early – in fact, it was just about the earliest bloom in the century since the festival began. Washington was not the only place that experienced summer in March. Some 15,000 temperature records fell across the eastern half of the U.S. In parts of Canada, temperatures were higher in March than the previously recorded highs for April.
Now we all know that you can’t really attribute any single event – like a blossom-less Cherry Blossom Festival–to global warming. But even among TV weathercasters, who are generally skeptical of climate change, its emerging influence is getting hard to ignore. Here’s what Stu Ostro, chief meteorologist at The Weather Channel, had to say about the record heat: “While natural factors are contributing to this warm spell, given the nature of it and its context with other extreme weather events and patterns in recent years, there is a high probability that global warming is having an influence…”
My point is this: the impacts of climate change are being felt now–and, on our present course, they are certain to intensify. At some levels, this reality is beginning to sink in. As the Arctic sea ice begins to melt away, Canada, the United States, Russia and other Arctic states are very actively considering the implications for shipping, for resource development, and for security. Some are strengthening their military capabilities in the region. But in too many places–including here and in Washington–the growing risks of climate change are not yet real enough with the public, or with our political leaders, to drive the changes needed to avert the worst of them.
Twenty years after the first Rio summit–which launched the international climate effort–we are barely making a dent in the problem. Global leaders agreed in Copenhagen on a goal of limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius. To meet that goal, according to most scenarios, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2015. That’s three years away. Instead, global emissions are projected to grow 17 percent by 2020, and 37 percent by 2035. Under that scenario, we could see average global temperatures rise 3 to 4 degrees by 2100.
So let me come back to Washington, and a second recent event: the latest step by the Obama administration to regulate greenhouse gases. The recession has significantly moderated U.S. emissions. They dropped 9 percent from 2007 to 2009. They’re now rising again, but fairly slowly. In fact, current projections don’t show emissions returning to 2005 levels until after 2035. But they would still likely be significantly higher in 2020 than the target pledged by the U.S. in Copenhagen.
Three years ago, you may recall, the goal was comprehensive legislation, including an economy-wide cap-and-trade program. A bill did pass the House, which was at the time controlled by the Democrats, but the effort fizzled in the Senate. The Republicans took control of the House in the next election–and a number of moderate Democrats who’d supported the bill were tossed out. Prospects for any major climate legislation in the near future are now generally put at nil.
So the only option open to the Administration is to regulate greenhouse gases under the federal Clean Air Act–and at the moment, it is proceeding cautiously. When it came to reducing emissions from cars and light trucks, the Administration was able to capitalize on a particular set of circumstances to deliver a genuine breakthrough. The automakers were already being pushed by California to lower emissions, and having just been rescued from bankruptcy by Washington, were more obliging than usual. The resulting rules – one already in place, the other pending–will increase the fuel economy of the average new vehicle from 30 miles a gallon today to 50 miles a gallon by 2025, avoiding some 3 billion metric tons of greenhouse emissions.
Now the Administration is turning its attention to stationary sources–starting with power plants. Last month, the Environmental Protection Agency proposed a rule to limit greenhouse gases from new power plants. Under the proposed rule, they could not exceed the level emitted by a natural gas combined cycle plant – the most efficient now available. Any new coal-fired plants would have to use carbon capture-and-storage, which could be phased in over time. The reality, though, is that with the natural gas boom there is virtually no talk of building new coal plants. So the rule would more or less lock in the direction things are projected to be heading anyway. The bigger question is what happens at existing power plants, which account for 40 percent of U.S. emissions. On that–or any other steps to control stationary sources – we’re unlikely to hear anything at all out of EPA until after the November election.
This is, of course, a presidential election year, which helps explain the context for a third recent event in Washington–one that no doubt more of you will have heard about. I’m talking about the President’s denial of a permit for the Keystone pipeline.
Those of you very familiar with the manmade geography of North America know that Keystone would be but one more addition to a vast network of pipelines linking our two countries. Insofar as it would continue our dependence on high-carbon fuels–something that’s true of countless other investment decisions being made around the globe–Keystone is indeed worrisome. But given the global nature of the oil market, building or blocking Keystone is unlikely to have any significant impact on the price of gas, the U.S. job market, or greenhouse gas emissions. With or without Keystone, as long as oil prices remain high, the Canadian oil sands will continue to be developed, and that oil will reach market. If the real problem is, as I believe, our dependence on oil, then the real answers are reducing consumption and developing alternatives. Blocking Keystone does neither.
Yet with this being an election year; with the economy still struggling; with gasoline prices at record highs; with Keystone advocates promising jobs, cheaper gas and energy security; and with climate advocates rallying outside the White House, it’s easy to see how Keystone has emerged as a symbolic flashpoint. The upshot for now is that a southern section of the pipeline, fully within the U.S., is proceeding, and the President has left the door open for a revised proposal for the upper, transboundary portion.
The political theatrics of the Keystone episode–with the president trying to punt the issue past the election, and Republicans in Congress forcing him to make a decision now, and the President managing to punt it anyway–underscore a troubling aspect of the climate and energy debate in the U.S.: like so many others, it has become increasingly partisan.
Which leads me to a fourth telling event recently in Washington: A group called Republicans for Environmental Protection took “Republican” out of its name. The group is now called ConservAmerica, a switch that its leaders say is aimed at better highlighting the conservative roots of conservation. Indeed, as far back as Teddy Roosevelt, some of America’s greatest environmental achievements have come with Republicans in power. But Republican moderates are today a disappearing breed. Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine, one of the last remaining, announced her retirement recently. Looking back over her 33 years in Congress, she lamented that “an atmosphere of polarization and ‘my may or the highway’ ideologies has become pervasive in campaigns and in our governing institutions.”
Even outside the hyper-partisan atmosphere of Washington, there is a clear partisan divide. Sixty-five percent of Democrats believe global warming is mainly caused by human activities, while among Republicans, it’s only 36 percent. Most Americans generally support an all-of-the-above approach to energy. But here, too, there are clear partisan differences: while roughly 85 percent of Democrats favor more government money for wind and solar, as well as mandatory CO2 controls, 85 percent of Republicans favor opening more federal land to oil drilling.
So that is how things look right now. I imagine many of you are wondering how they might look after the election. And I’ll get there. But for now, I’d like to put Washington aside for a moment and turn, as promised, to the international picture.
I think years from now, it is quite possible that we will look back at the UN climate conference last December in Durban as a critical turning point. The deal that was finally eked out there at 3 in the morning, 30 hours after the conference was supposed to end, delivers little in the way of concrete action. But it does open up some possibilities. I’d say it is a deal delicately poised between two eras in the evolving international climate regime–between the fading age of Kyoto, and a new phase beyond Kyoto, with developed and developing countries presumably on a more equal footing. What that phase might look like is at this stage very difficult to say.
Since the very start of the climate negotiations, there has been a tension between two different approaches: a top-down model with binding targets and timetables; and a bottom up approach called pledge-and-review, with countries undertaking voluntary efforts, and subject to some form of international review. Twenty years later, we’ve yet to choose between them. Right now, we are in fact pursuing both.
We’ve tried the top-down model, of course, in the form of the Kyoto Protocol. The theory there was that binding international commitments would drive domestic action. One might point to Canada as a clear exception in this case–or, perhaps, as proof that the whole theory is wrong. I, for one, think the truth likely lies somewhere in between. We’re all familiar with the Kyoto critique: that it covers a small and shrinking share of global emissions, while leaving emerging economies like China and India free to emit all they want. Canada is the only country to have actually withdrawn from the protocol, but others like Russia and Japan have made abundantly clear for some time that they want nothing to do with it after 2012.
Now interestingly, even as Kyoto has been sputtering along, other things have been happening in the international regime. The 2009 Copenhagen summit, declared by many a failure because it didn’t produce a binding agreement, did in fact produce an important political agreement, one calling for both developed and developing countries to pledge climate targets or actions for 2020. The Copenhagen Accord also called for a new climate fund for developing countries, and stronger transparency measures so parties could better keep tabs on one another. In another wee-hour episode, this one perhaps best forgotten, formal adoption of the accord was blocked in the final moments by a handful of parties. But a year later in Cancun, parties adopted all of its major elements and began implementing them. They were, in essence, creating a parallel framework that looks very much like pledge and review.
The upside is that so far, more than 80 countries have made explicit pledges for 2020. This includes, for the first time, all of the major economies, both developed and developing. The downside is that taken together these pledges fall far short of what’s needed to put us on track for the 2-degree target adopted in Copenhagen, and again in Cancun.
For all its failings, the Kyoto Protocol retains enormous symbolism around the globe as the first and only binding commitments to fight climate change. And going into Durban, many developing countries were adamant that if there was to be any deal there, Kyoto’s survival had to be part of it. While Canada and others were saying count us out, Europe said it might well be willing to take a new Kyoto target, but on one condition: that parties launch a new round of negotiations toward a binding comprehensive agreement.
That became the crux of the Durban deal: Europe and a handful of others agreed to take new Kyoto targets, keeping the protocol alive, if only barely. Parties took a number of steps to further flesh out the framework emerging from Copenhagen and Cancun. And they adopted the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, launching new talks aimed at a new agreement in 2015.
What kind of agreement? If you look to the Durban Platform for guidance, you won’t find much. Here is the critical passage: parties “launch a process to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all parties.” There are two central issues embedded here, and on both, these words leave considerable ambiguity.
The first issue is the agreement’s legal character–will it be legally binding? A protocol would meet that test. So, presumably would “another legal instrument.” But the third option contained in the text–“an agreed outcome with legal force”–is a completely novel formulation. An artful one, to be sure, but one easily open to interpretation. And the interpretations already being suggested by some parties sound less than binding, at least as it’s been conventionally understood.
The second issue is the balance of responsibility between developed and developing countries, a perennial concern. Back at the start, in the Rio convention, the parties spoke to this issue by laying down the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.” A country’s responsibility varies according to its contribution to the problem, and its capacity to address it. Kyoto applied this principle in an especially stark and especially rigid manner: binding targets for developed countries, no new commitments for developing countries, and no clear path for ever moving beyond that. One thing that can be said of the Durban Platform is that it sweeps away this strict notion of differentiation, and with good reason. China has overtaken the United States at the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, and collectively, developing countries now account for nearly 60 percent of annual emissions.
But beyond discarding the strict binary differentiation of Kyoto, Durban offers scant guidance. While it doesn’t directly invoke the phrase “common but differentiated responsibilities,” it does so implicitly by placing the new agreement “under the Convention.” It would be a mistake to think for a minute that developing countries have in any way abandoned this core principle. And while Durban says the new agreement will be “applicable to all parties,” the same actually could be said of Kyoto, so it’s hard to read that as ensuring full symmetry.
On another issue–the form of commitments to be taken–Durban is utterly silent. The Copenhagen and Cancun agreements were clear that developed country pledges were to be economy-wide emission targets, while developing countries were free to pledge in any form they chose. Is that the presumption for next time? Can’t say.
So on the one hand, by knocking down the so-called firewall between developed and developing countries erected by the Kyoto Protocol, and by establishing a strong preference at least for a binding outcome, the Durban Platform opens up, for the first time, the possibility of a balanced, binding agreement. On the other hand, it tells us virtually nothing about what that agreement should look like.
Let’s look again at the two models we’ve already created. One option might be to keep the Kyoto approach of binding emission targets, but this time set targets for the major developing countries too. Realistically, I see very little chance of getting there by 2015. Another option is to keep building up the framework coming out of Copenhagen and Cancun. It’s proven to be a very inclusive framework, while allowing differentiation between developed and developing countries in the form of their commitments.
But how would we move it beyond pure pledge and review? Can we make it a system that actually encourages countries to elevate their efforts by giving them confidence that others are doing their fair share? Can we agree on what a fair share of effort is? Will countries be ready to legally bind themselves? And with Canada providing proof that binding is not always binding, we really do have to ask ourselves, what is it we even mean by binding?
As we start looking for answers, I think this is a good moment to reconsider what it is we are actually looking to the international climate regime to accomplish. Experience has shown us that in the case of many countries, including many of the largest emitters, we cannot realistically expect the international regime to drive the domestic effort. But I believe it can serve to facilitate and to encourage; and as the place where emerging national efforts are stitched together, hopefully in ways that that build confidence and a sense of reciprocity that, over time, delivers a stronger collective effort.
If that is one’s vision of the international effort, then what follows is that the real work to be done right now is not in the international negotiations, but rather, at home. So let me return to Washington, and our election, and the outlook beyond.
One could very reasonably suggest that a re-elected President Obama would be more favorably inclined to strong climate action than would a President Romney. But the reality is that how quickly we are able to ramp up the U.S. effort depends a lot more on factors other than who occupies the White House. First and foremost is the state of the economy, and while there are hopeful signs, we’re not out of the woods yet. The next most important factor is probably the level of public awareness and concern, and that may be very closely linked to the weather. In a recent survey, a large majority of Americans said they believe global warming is making the weather more extreme. As the impacts become more pronounced, so may public support for action.
And regardless of who’s in the White House, it matters a lot who is in Congress. Right now the situation is so fluid that you couldn’t rule out the possibility of either the Democrats or the Republicans taking both houses. I think it is fair to say that whatever the outcome of the election, stronger action, whether in Congress or through EPA, will remain an uphill fight.
Given that outlook, we see two priorities. The first is to continue laying the ground for a comprehensive policy solution by working with all parties to explore the options, and by helping to strengthen public awareness and concern. The second is to find ways to make concrete progress now, piece by piece, by looking for opportunities where different interests converge, and are prepared to compromise around practical solutions. To cite just one example, we recently pulled together a group from industry, government, labor and the environmental community that worked out joint recommendations to expand enhanced oil recovery using CO2 captured from power plants and industrial facilities. It’s a plan that would reduce CO2 emissions while boosting domestic oil production. We need to find more opportunities like this, get people together, and prove that progress is possible.
I’d like to end where I began, by noting that climate change is no longer remote–it is here and now. I understand that just as Washington’s festival goers missed out on the cherry blossoms, the world’s largest ice skating rink barely made an appearance this winter. Up north, the permafrost is melting, the sea ice is shrinking, and the ancient ways of the Inuit are in danger. We can see the signs, and we have begun to take some steps. But the truth is that neither the U.S. nor Canada is yet coming to grips with the climate realities and climate risks that we face. We are not out of time, but it is running short. There are serious choices upon us. Let us hope we choose well.