Science

Hurricane season just around the corner

Hurricane season officially starts June 1 and it looks like a busy one in the Atlantic.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects a well above-average hurricane season with 13 to 20 named storms. Seven to 11 of them could develop into hurricanes and three to six of those could be major (defined as category 3 or higher).  The average over about the past 30 years is 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes per season.

Tornadoes and Climate Change

Photo courtesy NOAA

Tornadoes and Climate Change

Definition of a Tornado

Tornadoes are formed by a combination of atmospheric instability and wind shear. Instability occurs when warm, moist air is wedged under drier, cooler air aloft. This warm air rises, causing the intense updrafts and downdrafts seen in strong thunderstorms — the incubators of tornadoes. Wind shear refers to changes in wind direction and speed at different elevations in the atmosphere. The combination of instability and wind shear forms the rotating column of air that we associate with a tornado. Tornadoes that form over water are known as waterspouts.

The link between tornadoes and climate change is currently unclear. One problem is the difficulty in identifying long-term trends in tornado records, which only date back to 1950 in the United States. Also, the population in many areas affected by tornadoes has grown, so it’s possible that tornadoes in the early part of the 20th century occurred without anyone seeing them. Improved technology, such as advanced radar, also helps us “see” tornadoes that may not have been detected decades ago.

Another problem lies with the physics associated with tornadoes. Researchers are working to better understand how the building blocks for tornadoes -- atmospheric instability and wind shear -- will respond to global warming. It is likely that a warmer, moister world would allow for more frequent instability. However, it is also likely that a warmer world would lessen chances for wind shear. Recent trends for these quantities in the Midwest during the spring are inconclusive. Climate change also could shift the timing of tornadoes or the regions that are most likely to be hit, with less of an impact on the total number of tornadoes.

Adding to the difficulty, tornadoes are too geographically small to be well simulated by climate models. Models can simulate some of the conditions that contribute to forming severe thunderstorms that often spawn tornadoes. Multiple studies (see here and here) find the conditions that produce the most severe thunderstorms are likely to occur more often in a warmer world, even if the total number of thunderstorms decreases (because of fewer weak storms). However, this work does not conclusively tell us whether tornadoes should follow the same trend as their parent thunderstorms.

Threats posed by tornadoes

The most significant threats from tornadoes are the dangers posed by strong winds and debris that is caught up in those winds. Although individual tornadoes may affect a relatively small area compared to large tropical storms, they can threaten people, homes, and communities.

NOAA estimates that, on average, about 1,200 tornadoes occur across the country annually, but several hundred more or fewer tornadoes can occur in any given year.

On average, tornadoes in the United States cause 70 deaths and 1,500 injuries per year. The death toll from tornadoes has dropped rapidly because forecasters have more tools to detect dangerous weather and quickly warn people to take shelter.

However, tornadoes still cause billions of dollars a year in property damage. The costliest year on record for tornado damage was 2011, when seven tornado and severe weather outbreaks each caused more than $1 billion in damages, and the total damage for the year was more than $28 billion.

How to Build Resilience

Communities can bolster their resilience and reduce the impacts from tornadoes by:

  • Adopting more stringent building codes in tornado-prone areas
  • Continuing to support new severe weather research and improvements to forecasts for severe weather
  • Heeding watches and warnings when they are issued, and ensuring that individuals can be reached  by emergency alert systems (for example, through text message, television, and radio, or via tornado sirens)

To Learn More

NOAA Severe Weather 101: Tornadoes

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center FAQ for Tornadoes

Ready.gov’s Resource Page for Tornadoes

Federal Emergency Management Agency: Taking Shelter From the Storm: Building a Safe Room for Your Home or Small Business

 

Extreme Weather

Extreme Weather Event Map: Click on any circle to learn about one of the billion-dollar weather events, or any state to learn about billion-dollar droughts. All events occurred between 2000 and 2013.

>$50 billion
$20-$50 billion
$5-$20 billion
$2-$5 billion
< $2 billion
(Note: circle sizes correspond to the map view of the continental U.S.)

This map shows billion-dollar weather events in the United States since 2000, as identified by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center. The Top 10 costliest events are listed at the bottom of this page, along with a description of major U.S. droughts since 2000.

Floods, Tornadoes, Thunderstorms, Hail, Tropical Storms, Wildfires, and Winter Storms are all shown as circles, with the costs indicated by the area of the circles (see image to the right).  The location of the circles correspond to places where impacts were experienced (note: locations are approximate; many of the events actually impacted a large area, beyond
the boundaries of the circle). Droughts are not shown by circles, but by the shading in the states – states with darker colors have experienced more droughts since 2000, while states that are lightly shaded have experienced fewer droughts. No billion dollar events have occurred in Hawaii since 2000; some of the wildfire impacts (e.g., fire seasons in 2006, 2007, and 2008) included damages in Alaska, but the markers appear in the continental United States.

Many of these events, including heat waves and heavy rainfall, are likely to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. Climate change can also worsen the impacts of some of these events. For example, sea level rise can increase the impacts of coastal storms and warming can place more stress on water supplies during droughts. But it’s important to note that not ALL of these events will necessarily happen more frequently as a consequence of climate change. The links between climate change and tornadoes, ice storms, and hail are unclear, and represent current areas of research.

These events demonstrate ways our communities and infrastructure are vulnerable to extreme weather, and that the costs associated with impacts can be large.

More Resources on Extreme Weather and Climate Change

Fact Pages: Learn more about the links between climate change and:

 

Weathering the Storm - Extreme weather is costly. The events shown on the map above all cost billions of dollars, and several events had widespread and long-lasting implications.

C2ES has investigated how companies are perceiving the risks associated with extreme weather and climate change. Focusing on Standard and Poor’s (S&P) Global 100 companies, we found that 90 percent of these companies identify extreme weather and climate change as risks, and most have experienced climate impacts or expect to within 10 years. Although some companies have taken action, only a few have used climate-specific tools to comprehensively assess risks and develop resilience plans. Check out the report to learn more, and to learn about the steps business and government can take to close the resilience gap.

 

Related Blogs

 

Table 1: Top 10 Disasters by Cost Since 2000
Event and DateCostFatalitiesDescription
Hurricane Katrina
August 2005
$148 billion1,833The hurricane initially hit as a Category 1 near Miami, FL, then as a stronger Category 3 along the eastern LA-western MS coastlines, resulting in severe storm surge damage (maximum surge probably exceeded 30 feet) along the LA-MS-AL coasts, wind damage, and the failure of parts of the levee system in New Orleans. High winds and some flooding occurred in Ala., Fla., Ga., Ind., Ky., Miss., Ohio and Tenn.
Hurricane Sandy
October 2012
$65.7 billion159Sandy caused extensive damage across several northeastern states (Conn., Del., Mass., Md., N.J., N.Y., R.I.) due to high wind and coastal storm surge, particularly in N.J. and N.Y. Damage from wind, rain and heavy snow also extended more broadly to other states (N.C., N.H., Ohio, Pa., Va., W.Va.), as Sandy merged with a developing Nor'easter. Sandy interrupted critical water and electrical services in major population centers and caused 159 deaths (72 direct, 87 indirect). Sandy also shut down the New York Stock Exchange for two consecutive business days, which last happened in 1888 due to a major winter storm.
Drought
2012
$30.0-$30.3 billion123The 2012 drought was the most extensive in the U.S. since the 1930s. Moderate to extreme drought conditions affected more than half the country for a majority of 2012. Costly impacts included widespread harvest failure for corn, sorghum and soybean crops, among others. The associated summer heat wave also caused 123 direct deaths, but the excess mortality due to heat stress is still unknown.
Hurricane Ike
September 2008
$29.2 billion112Ike made landfall in Texas as a Category 2 hurricane. It was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record by size, causing a considerable storm surge in coastal TX and significant wind and flooding damage in Ark., Ill., Ind., Ky., La., Mich., Mo., Ohio, Pa., Tenn. and Texas. Severe gasoline shortages occurred in the Southeast due to damaged oil platforms, storage tanks, pipelines and refineries.
Hurricane Wilma
October 2005
$19 billion35The Category 3 hurricane hit SW Florida, resulting in strong damaging winds and major flooding across southeastern Florida. Prior to landfall, Wilma as a Category 5 recorded the lowest pressure (882 mb) ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Hurricane Rita
September 2005
$19 billion119The Category 3 hurricane hit Texas-Louisiana border coastal region, creating significant storm surge and wind damage along the coast, and some inland flooding in the Fla. panhandle, Ala., Miss., La., Ark., and Texas. Prior to landfall, Rita reached the third lowest pressure (897 mb) ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Hurricane Charley
August 2004
$18.5 billion35The Category 4 hurricane made landfall in southwest Florida, resulting in major wind and some storm surge damage in FL, along with some damage in the states of S.C. and N.C..
Hurricane Ivan
September 2004
$17.2 billion57The Category 3 hurricane made landfall on Gulf coast of Ala., with significant wind, storm surge, and flooding damage in coastal Ala. and Fla. panhandle, along with wind/flood damage in the states of Ga., Miss., La., S.C., N.C., Va., W.Va., Md., Tenn., Ky., Ohio, Del., N.J., Pa., and N.Y.
Drought
2011
$12.0-$12.4 billion95In Texas and Oklahoma, a majority of range and pasture lands were classified in "very poor" condition for much of the 2011 growing season.
Hurricane Frances
September 2004
$11.1 billion48The Category 2 hurricane made landfall in east-central Fla., causing significant wind, storm surge, and flooding damage in FL, along with considerable flood damage in the states of Ga., N.C., N.Y. and S.C. due to 5-15 inches of rain.

 

Table 2: Drought Events since 2000

YearCostFatalitiesDescriptionStates Affected
2013N/A53The 2013 drought slowly dissipated from the historic levels of the 2012 drought, as conditions improved across many Midwestern and Plains states. However, moderate to extreme drought did remain or expand into western states. In comparison to 2011 and 2012 drought conditions the US experienced only moderate crop losses across the central agriculture states.Ariz., Calif., Colo., Idaho, Kan., Neb., Nev., N.M., Okla., Ore., S.D., Texas, Utah, Wyo.
2012$30.0-$30.3 billion123The 2012 drought was the most extensive drought to affect the U.S. since the 1930s. Moderate to extreme drought conditions affected more than half the country for a majority of 2012. Costly drought impacts occurred across the central agriculture states resulting in widespread harvest failure for corn, sorghum and soybean crops, among others. The associated summer heatwave also caused 123 direct deaths, but an estimate of the excess mortality due to heat stress is still unknown.Ariz., Ark., Calif., Colo., Ga., Idaho, Ill., Ind., Iowa, Kan., Minn., Mo., Mont., Neb., Nev., N.M., N.D., Okla., S.D., Texas, Utah, Wyo.
2011$12.0-$12.4 billion95Drought and heat wave conditions created major impacts for affected areas. In Texas and Oklahoma, a majority of range and pastures were classified in "very poor" condition for much of the 2011 crop growing season.Ariz., Kan., La., N.M., Okla., Texas
2009$5.0-$5.4 billion0Drought conditions occurred during much of the year across parts of the Southwest, Great Plains, and southern Texas causing agricultural losses in numerous states. The largest agriculture losses occurred in Texas and California.Ariz., Calif., Kan., N.M., Okla., Texas
2008$2.0-$2.2 billion0Severe drought and heat caused agricultural losses in areas of the South and West. Record low lake levels also occurred in areas of the Southeast.Calif., Ga., N.C., S.C., Tenn., Texas
2007$5.0-$5.6 billion15Severe drought with periods of extreme heat over most of the Southeast and parts of the Great Plains, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes area reduced crop yields, stream flows and lake levels.Ala., Ark., Fla., Ga., Ill., Ind., Iowa, Kan., Ky., La., Mich., Minn., Miss., Neb., N.Y., N.C., N.D., Ohio, Okla., Pa., S.C., S.D., Tenn., Texas, Va., W.Va., Wis.
2006$6.0-$6.9 billion0Severe drought affected crops in the Great Plains and across portions of the South and far West.Ala., Ark., Calif., Colo., Fla., Ga., Iowa, Kan., La., Minn., Miss., Mo., Mont., Neb., N.M., N.D., Okla., S.D., Texas, Wyo.
2005$1.0-$1.2 billion0Severe localized drought caused significant crop losses, especially for corn and soybeans.Ark., Ill., Ind., Mo., Ohio, Wis.
2002$10.0-$12.9 billion0Moderate to extreme drought was experienced over large portions of 30 states, including the West, Great Plains, and much of the eastern U.S.Ala., Ariz., Calif., Colo., Conn., Del., Fla., Ga., Idaho, Iowa, Kan., La., Maine, Md., Mich., Miss., Mo., Mont., Neb., Nev., N.J., N.M., N.C., N.D., Ohio, Okla., Ore., Pa., R.I., S.C., S.D., Texas, Utah, Va., Wyo.
2000$4.0-$5.4 billion140Severe drought and persistent heat over south-central and southeastern states caused significant losses to agriculture and related industries.Ala., Ariz., Ark, Calif., Colo., Fla., Ga., Idaho, Iowa, Kan., La., Miss., Mont., Neb., Nev., N.M., N.C., Okla., Ore., S.C., Tenn., Texas, Utah, Wash., Wyo.

 

AASHTO Extreme Weather Events Symposium

Promoted in Energy Efficiency section: 
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Joseph Casola will speak on trends and projections.

Joseph Casola will speak on trends and projections.

Global temps are still above average

Some skeptics have seized on a recent article in The Economist noting an apparent “hiatus” in global warming to argue that climate change is a fiction and efforts to address it are misguided. Those interpretations, which were voiced by some representatives at a recent House hearing on climate science, misrepresent both the article and the science it examines.

So what are the facts?

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Coping with coastal flood risk

Political leaders in the Northeast have very different ideas about how to treat coastal properties ravaged by Hurricane Sandy. Some aim to reduce development along exposed coasts while others say let’s rebuild. How they proceed could set important precedents for managing rising flood risk along the nation’s coasts. 

Motivated by concerns about more frequent and intense extreme weather, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo plans to buy back damaged coastal properties from homeowners willing to sell and preserve the land as undeveloped public spaces. Cuomo’s plan would use funds from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which requires that purchased properties not be developed.  

Governor Cuomo proposes action to reduce coastal flood risk

Hurricane Sandy inflicted tremendous damage on New York’s coastal communities.  The threat of more intense, more frequent storms driven by climate change has led Gov. Andrew Cuomo to propose limiting development in vulnerable locations. Just as Sandy provided a preview of future climate risks, the governor’s proposal may offer an example of one effective response.

Recapping a year of weather extremes

President Obama’s forceful call for climate action in his inaugural address came after a year when climate change was barely whispered in the presidential campaign but its effects were loud and clear here in the United States and around the world.

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