Science

IPCC: Growing Certainty on the Human Role in Climate Change

In its periodic assessments, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has expressed growing certainty that global warming is underway and that human activity is a principal cause. The panel’s language has become progressively stronger over time to reflect its growing certainty.

In 1990, the IPCC said that emissions from human activities were “substantially increasing” greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which would lead to warming.

By 2013, the panel had concluded that "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century."

The chart below traces how the IPCC’s conclusions have strengthened over time.

YearAssessmentStatement on Human Involvement in Climate Change
1990 First Assessment

“…emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases…

These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface”

1995Second Assessment

“Most of these studies have detected a significant change and show that the observed warming trend is unlikely to be entirely natural in origin…

…the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate.

…the average rate of warming [in projections for the 21st century] would probably be greater than any seen in the last 10,000 years, but the actual annual to decadal changes would include considerable natural variability.”

2001Third Assessment

“There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

…the projected rate of warming is much larger than the observed changes during the 20th century and is very likely to be without precedent during at least the last 10,000 years, based on paleoclimate data.”

2007Fourth Assessment

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.

Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

2013Fifth Assessment

"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.

…It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century."

 

 

Collection of Federal Adaptation Plans

In 2009, the Obama Administration convened the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, and the President signed Executive Order 13514, directing agencies to improve energy and water efficiency, better manage waste and pollution, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the Order requested that agencies identify vulnerabilities and put together a climate adaptation plan by June 2012. The plans were released in February 2013 and began implementation for FY 2013. These Adaptation Plans are often part of an agency’s broader Sustainability Plan and will be updated each year.

 

Highlighted Adaptation Plans

 

 

 

Other Federal Agency Adaptation Resources

Other federal agencies have published climate change adaptation plans as directed by Executive Order 13514. These agencies are either smaller or have provided fewer details in their adaptation plans; links to the plans are below:

Advisory Council on Historic Preservation

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Department of Veteran's Affairs

Farm Credit Administration   

Federal Trade Commission  

Marine Mammal Commission  

National Archives and Records Administration

National Capital Planning Commission

National Endowment for the Arts

National Endowment for the Humanities 

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Office of Personnel Management

Office of Special Counsel

Overseas Private Investment Corporation

Peace Corps

Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

Railroad Retirement Board

Small Business Administration

Social Security Administration

Smithsonian Institution

Tennessee Valley Authority

United States Postal Service 

New York takes leadership role in climate resilience

Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s $20 billion plan to safeguard New York City against a future Hurricane Sandy and other climate risks is the most ambitious effort yet by any U.S. city to prepare for the expected impacts of climate change.

The mayor last week announced “A Stronger, More Resilient New York,” a comprehensive plan to protect communities and critical infrastructure, and proposed significant changes to New York’s building codes for new construction and major renovations that will help buildings withstand severe weather and flooding. Its 250 recommendations include building new infrastructure (like installing armor stone shoreline protection in Coney Island), changing how services are  provided (like encouraging redundant internet infrastructure), and establishing standardized citywide communication protocols for use during disruptions.

Hurricane season just around the corner

Hurricane season officially starts June 1 and it looks like a busy one in the Atlantic.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects a well above-average hurricane season with 13 to 20 named storms. Seven to 11 of them could develop into hurricanes and three to six of those could be major (defined as category 3 or higher).  The average over about the past 30 years is 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes per season.

Tornadoes and Climate Change

What causes a tornado?

Tornadoes are formed by a combination of atmospheric instability and wind shear.  Instability occurs when warm, moist air is wedged under drier, cooler air aloft. This warm air rises, causing the intense updrafts and downdrafts seen in strong thunderstorms — the incubators of tornadoes. Wind shear refers to changes in wind direction and speed at different elevations in the atmosphere. The combination of instability and wind shear forms the circular air flow that generates a tornado.

Why are there so many in the U.S. Midwest?

The Central United States has an abundance of the ingredients necessary for tornado formation. During the spring, warm tropical air masses from the Gulf of Mexico collide with colder, drier air at higher altitudes to spawn intense thunderstorms. Thunderstorms also form into the summer and fall, as the region’s vast plains heat up air near the surface, causing atmospheric instability. These intense thunderstorms act as incubators for tornadoes. Tornadoes occur around the world but are most common in “Tornado Alley” of the Central United States.

Is there a link between climate change and tornadoes?

It is important to keep in mind that climate change has an impact on all weather events.  The effect of the carbon dioxide in our atmosphere cannot be switched off – it influences our seemingly benign “everyday” or “normal” weather as well as the extreme events. 

A specific link between tornadoes and climate change, however, is unclear. It is difficult to identify and diagnose trends in long-term records of tornadoes, since the population in many areas affected by tornadoes has grown (e.g., tornadoes in the early part of the 20th century may have occurred without anyone seeing them) and the technology used to observe tornadoes has improved (e.g., radars help us “see” tornadoes in ways that were not possible many decades ago).

How could climate change affect the frequency or intensity of tornadoes?

Researchers are working to better understand how the building blocks for tornadoes -- atmospheric instability and wind shear -- will respond to global warming. It is likely that a warmer, moister world would allow for more frequent instability. However, it is also likely that a warmer world would lessen chances for wind shear. Recent trends for these quantities in the Midwest during the spring are inconclusive. It is also possible that these changes could shift the timing of tornadoes or regions that are most likely to be hit.

Adding to the difficulty, tornadoes are too geographically small to be well simulated by climate models. Models can simulate some of the conditions that contribute to forming severe thunderstorms that often spawn tornadoes. Multiple studies (e.g., here and here) find the conditions that produce the most severe thunderstorms are likely to occur more often in the in a warmer world, even if the total number of thunderstorms decreases (because of fewer weak storms). However, this work does not conclusively tell us whether tornadoes should follow the same trend as their parent thunderstorms.

Extreme Weather

Extreme Weather Event Map: Click on any circle to learn about one of the billion-dollar weather events, or any state to learn about billion-dollar droughts. All events occurred between 2000 and 2013.

>$50 billion
$20-$50 billion
$5-$20 billion
$2-$5 billion
< $2 billion
(Note: circle sizes correspond to the map view of the continental U.S.)

This map shows billion-dollar weather events in the United States since 2000, as identified by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center. The Top 10 costliest events are listed at the bottom of this page, along with a description of major U.S. droughts since 2000.

Floods, Tornadoes, Thunderstorms, Hail, Tropical Storms, Wildfires, and Winter Storms are all shown as circles, with the costs indicated by the area of the circles (see image to the right).  The location of the circles correspond to places where impacts were experienced (note: locations are approximate; many of the events actually impacted a large area, beyond
the boundaries of the circle). Droughts are not shown by circles, but by the shading in the states – states with darker colors have experienced more droughts since 2000, while states that are lightly shaded have experienced fewer droughts. No billion dollar events have occurred in Hawaii since 2000; some of the wildfire impacts (e.g., fire seasons in 2006, 2007, and 2008) included damages in Alaska, but the markers appear in the continental United States.

Many of these events, including heat waves and heavy rainfall, are likely to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. Climate change can also worsen the impacts of some of these events. For example, sea level rise can increase the impacts of coastal storms and warming can place more stress on water supplies during droughts. But it’s important to note that not ALL of these events will necessarily happen more frequently as a consequence of climate change. The links between climate change and tornadoes, ice storms, and hail are unclear, and represent current areas of research.

These events demonstrate ways our communities and infrastructure are vulnerable to extreme weather, and that the costs associated with impacts can be large.

More Resources on Extreme Weather and Climate Change

Fact Pages: Learn more about the links between climate change and:

 

Weathering the Storm - Extreme weather is costly. The events shown on the map above all cost billions of dollars, and several events had widespread and long-lasting implications.

C2ES has investigated how companies are perceiving the risks associated with extreme weather and climate change. Focusing on Standard and Poor’s (S&P) Global 100 companies, we found that 90 percent of these companies identify extreme weather and climate change as risks, and most have experienced climate impacts or expect to within 10 years. Although some companies have taken action, only a few have used climate-specific tools to comprehensively assess risks and develop resilience plans. Check out the report to learn more, and to learn about the steps business and government can take to close the resilience gap.

 

Related Blogs

 

Table 1: Top 10 Disasters by Cost Since 2000
Event and DateCostFatalitiesDescription
Hurricane Katrina
August 2005
$148 billion1,833The hurricane initially hit as a Category 1 near Miami, FL, then as a stronger Category 3 along the eastern LA-western MS coastlines, resulting in severe storm surge damage (maximum surge probably exceeded 30 feet) along the LA-MS-AL coasts, wind damage, and the failure of parts of the levee system in New Orleans. High winds and some flooding occurred in Ala., Fla., Ga., Ind., Ky., Miss., Ohio and Tenn.
Hurricane Sandy
October 2012
$65.7 billion159Sandy caused extensive damage across several northeastern states (Conn., Del., Mass., Md., N.J., N.Y., R.I.) due to high wind and coastal storm surge, particularly in N.J. and N.Y. Damage from wind, rain and heavy snow also extended more broadly to other states (N.C., N.H., Ohio, Pa., Va., W.Va.), as Sandy merged with a developing Nor'easter. Sandy interrupted critical water and electrical services in major population centers and caused 159 deaths (72 direct, 87 indirect). Sandy also shut down the New York Stock Exchange for two consecutive business days, which last happened in 1888 due to a major winter storm.
Drought
2012
$30.0-$30.3 billion123The 2012 drought was the most extensive in the U.S. since the 1930s. Moderate to extreme drought conditions affected more than half the country for a majority of 2012. Costly impacts included widespread harvest failure for corn, sorghum and soybean crops, among others. The associated summer heat wave also caused 123 direct deaths, but the excess mortality due to heat stress is still unknown.
Hurricane Ike
September 2008
$29.2 billion112Ike made landfall in Texas as a Category 2 hurricane. It was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record by size, causing a considerable storm surge in coastal TX and significant wind and flooding damage in Ark., Ill., Ind., Ky., La., Mich., Mo., Ohio, Pa., Tenn. and Texas. Severe gasoline shortages occurred in the Southeast due to damaged oil platforms, storage tanks, pipelines and refineries.
Hurricane Wilma
October 2005
$19 billion35The Category 3 hurricane hit SW Florida, resulting in strong damaging winds and major flooding across southeastern Florida. Prior to landfall, Wilma as a Category 5 recorded the lowest pressure (882 mb) ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Hurricane Rita
September 2005
$19 billion119The Category 3 hurricane hit Texas-Louisiana border coastal region, creating significant storm surge and wind damage along the coast, and some inland flooding in the Fla. panhandle, Ala., Miss., La., Ark., and Texas. Prior to landfall, Rita reached the third lowest pressure (897 mb) ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Hurricane Charley
August 2004
$18.5 billion35The Category 4 hurricane made landfall in southwest Florida, resulting in major wind and some storm surge damage in FL, along with some damage in the states of S.C. and N.C..
Hurricane Ivan
September 2004
$17.2 billion57The Category 3 hurricane made landfall on Gulf coast of Ala., with significant wind, storm surge, and flooding damage in coastal Ala. and Fla. panhandle, along with wind/flood damage in the states of Ga., Miss., La., S.C., N.C., Va., W.Va., Md., Tenn., Ky., Ohio, Del., N.J., Pa., and N.Y.
Drought
2011
$12.0-$12.4 billion95In Texas and Oklahoma, a majority of range and pasture lands were classified in "very poor" condition for much of the 2011 growing season.
Hurricane Frances
September 2004
$11.1 billion48The Category 2 hurricane made landfall in east-central Fla., causing significant wind, storm surge, and flooding damage in FL, along with considerable flood damage in the states of Ga., N.C., N.Y. and S.C. due to 5-15 inches of rain.

 

Table 2: Drought Events since 2000

YearCostFatalitiesDescriptionStates Affected
2013N/A53The 2013 drought slowly dissipated from the historic levels of the 2012 drought, as conditions improved across many Midwestern and Plains states. However, moderate to extreme drought did remain or expand into western states. In comparison to 2011 and 2012 drought conditions the US experienced only moderate crop losses across the central agriculture states.Ariz., Calif., Colo., Idaho, Kan., Neb., Nev., N.M., Okla., Ore., S.D., Texas, Utah, Wyo.
2012$30.0-$30.3 billion123The 2012 drought was the most extensive drought to affect the U.S. since the 1930s. Moderate to extreme drought conditions affected more than half the country for a majority of 2012. Costly drought impacts occurred across the central agriculture states resulting in widespread harvest failure for corn, sorghum and soybean crops, among others. The associated summer heatwave also caused 123 direct deaths, but an estimate of the excess mortality due to heat stress is still unknown.Ariz., Ark., Calif., Colo., Ga., Idaho, Ill., Ind., Iowa, Kan., Minn., Mo., Mont., Neb., Nev., N.M., N.D., Okla., S.D., Texas, Utah, Wyo.
2011$12.0-$12.4 billion95Drought and heat wave conditions created major impacts for affected areas. In Texas and Oklahoma, a majority of range and pastures were classified in "very poor" condition for much of the 2011 crop growing season.Ariz., Kan., La., N.M., Okla., Texas
2009$5.0-$5.4 billion0Drought conditions occurred during much of the year across parts of the Southwest, Great Plains, and southern Texas causing agricultural losses in numerous states. The largest agriculture losses occurred in Texas and California.Ariz., Calif., Kan., N.M., Okla., Texas
2008$2.0-$2.2 billion0Severe drought and heat caused agricultural losses in areas of the South and West. Record low lake levels also occurred in areas of the Southeast.Calif., Ga., N.C., S.C., Tenn., Texas
2007$5.0-$5.6 billion15Severe drought with periods of extreme heat over most of the Southeast and parts of the Great Plains, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes area reduced crop yields, stream flows and lake levels.Ala., Ark., Fla., Ga., Ill., Ind., Iowa, Kan., Ky., La., Mich., Minn., Miss., Neb., N.Y., N.C., N.D., Ohio, Okla., Pa., S.C., S.D., Tenn., Texas, Va., W.Va., Wis.
2006$6.0-$6.9 billion0Severe drought affected crops in the Great Plains and across portions of the South and far West.Ala., Ark., Calif., Colo., Fla., Ga., Iowa, Kan., La., Minn., Miss., Mo., Mont., Neb., N.M., N.D., Okla., S.D., Texas, Wyo.
2005$1.0-$1.2 billion0Severe localized drought caused significant crop losses, especially for corn and soybeans.Ark., Ill., Ind., Mo., Ohio, Wis.
2002$10.0-$12.9 billion0Moderate to extreme drought was experienced over large portions of 30 states, including the West, Great Plains, and much of the eastern U.S.Ala., Ariz., Calif., Colo., Conn., Del., Fla., Ga., Idaho, Iowa, Kan., La., Maine, Md., Mich., Miss., Mo., Mont., Neb., Nev., N.J., N.M., N.C., N.D., Ohio, Okla., Ore., Pa., R.I., S.C., S.D., Texas, Utah, Va., Wyo.
2000$4.0-$5.4 billion140Severe drought and persistent heat over south-central and southeastern states caused significant losses to agriculture and related industries.Ala., Ariz., Ark, Calif., Colo., Fla., Ga., Idaho, Iowa, Kan., La., Miss., Mont., Neb., Nev., N.M., N.C., Okla., Ore., S.C., Tenn., Texas, Utah, Wash., Wyo.

 

AASHTO Extreme Weather Events Symposium

Promoted in Energy Efficiency section: 
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Joseph Casola will speak on trends and projections.

Joseph Casola will speak on trends and projections.

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