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The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions seeks to inform the design and implementation of federal policies that will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Drawing from its extensive peer-reviewed published works, in-house policy analyses, and tracking of current legislative proposals, the Center provides research, analysis, and recommendations to policymakers in Congress and the Executive Branch. Read More
 

Carbon Pollution Standards Map


In its proposed Clean Power Plan to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the power sector, EPA has set a unique target emissions rate for each state to hit by 2030. To develop this target, EPA first determined a carbon emissions baseline (using 2012 data) based on each state’s level of CO2 emissions from fossil-fired power plants divided by its total electricity generation (including fossil-fired generation, renewable generation, and nuclear generation). Targets for 2030 were then established based on the capacity of each state to achieve reductions using the following four “building blocks” identified by EPA:

  1. Make coal-fired power plants more efficient;
  2. Use low-emitting natural gas combined cycle plants more where excess capacity is available;
  3. Use more zero- and low-emitting power sources such as renewables and nuclear; and
  4. Reduce electricity demand by using electricity more efficiently.

Since there is a wide variation among states in both emissions baseline and capacity to leverage each of the four building blocks, there is a wide variation in how much each state must cut from current emissions to hit its 2030 target emissions rate. (See Table 1.)

Each state can meet its established target however it sees fit, and does not need to leverage each building block to the extent that EPA projects. States will be able to convert their target emissions rate (pounds CO2 per megawatt-hour of electricity generated) to a mass-based standard (tons of CO2 emitted per year) to enable a cap-and-trade program. States are also free to join together and work toward an aggregated regional target.

Table 1: Building Block Reduction by State

State Emissions Rate of Power System, including zero-carbon generation (lbs CO2 / MWh) (2012 Block 1 (Coal-plant Efficiency) Adding Block 2 (Natural Gas Fuel Switching) Adding Block 3 (Renewable and Nuclear Generation) Final Target by Adding Block 4 (Demand-side Energy Efficiency) Total Emissions Reduction Target by 2030
Washington 756 728 444 298 215 71.6%
Arizona 1453 1394 843 814 702 51.7%
South Carolina 1587 1506 1342 866 772 51.4%
Oregon 717 701 565 452 372 48.1%
New Hampshire 905 887 710 532 486 46.3%
Georgia 1500 1433 1216 926 834 44.4%
Arkansas 1634 1554 1058 996 910 44.3%
New York 978 970 828 652 549 43.9%
New Jersey 928 916 811 616 531 42.8%
Minnesota 1470 1389 999 1042 873 40.6%
North Carolina 1647 1560 1248 1125 992 39.8%
Louisiana 1455 1404 1043 978 883 39.3%
Tennessee 1903 1797 1698 1322 1163 38.9%
Texas 1284 1235 979 861 791 38.4%
Florida 1199 1169 882 812 740 38.3%
Virginia 1302 1258 1047 894 810 37.8%
Massachusetts 925 915 819 661 576 37.7%
Mississippi 1093 1071 809 752 692 36.7%
Maryland 1870 1772 1722 1394 1187 36.5%
Oklahoma 1387 1334 1053 964 895 35.5%
Colorado 1714 1621 1334 1222 1108 35.4%
South Dakota 1135 1067 732 900 741 34.7%
Nevada 988 970 799 720 647 34.5%
Wisconsin 1827 1728 1487 1379 1203 34.2%
New Mexico 1586 1513 1277 1163 1048 33.9%
Illinois 1894 1784 1614 1476 1271 32.9%
Idaho 339 339 339 291 228 32.7%
Delaware 1234 1211 996 892 841 31.8%
Michigan 1690 1603 1408 1339 1161 31.3%
Pennsylvania 1531 1458 1393 1157 1052 31.3%
Connecticut 765 764 733 643 540 29.4%
Ohio 1850 1751 1673 1512 1338 27.7%
Utah 1813 1713 1508 1454 1322 27.1%
Alabama 1444 1385 1264 1139 1059 26.7%
Nebraska 2009 1889 1803 1652 1479 26.4%
Alaska 1351 1340 1237 1191 1003 25.8%
California 698 697 662 615 537 23.1%
Kansas 1940 1828 1828 1658 1499 22.7%
Missouri 1963 1849 1742 1711 1544 21.3%
Montana 2246 2114 2114 1936 1771 21.1%
Indiana 1924 1817 1772 1707 1531 20.4%
West Virginia 2019 1898 1898 1687 1620 19.8%
Wyoming 2115 1988 1957 1771 1714 19.0%
Kentucky 2158 2028 1978 1947 1763 18.3%
Iowa 1552 1461 1304 1472 1301 16.2%
Hawaii 1540 1512 1512 1485 1306 15.2%
Rhode Island 907 907 907 867 782 13.8%
Maine 437 437 425 451 378 13.5%
North Dakota 1994 1875 1875 1865 1783 10.6%
Vermont No affected sources
D.C.

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Technical Support Document (TSD) for the CAA Section 111(d) Emission Guidelines for Existing Power Plants: Goal Computation, Appendix 5.

C2ES Carbon Pollution Standards Resource Page

EPA’s proposed carbon standard for power plants is stringent and flexible

The Obama Administration today took a major step toward reducing the carbon dioxide emissions that are impacting our climate. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its “Clean Power Plan,” which leverages existing authority in the Clean Air Act to propose carbon pollution standards for existing power plants, the largest single source of U.S. carbon emissions. The proposal would cut emissions in the power sector by 30 percent by 2030, based on 2005 levels. We reviewed the basics of the Clean Power Plan with four critical questions in mind:

1. Is the standard based on emission reductions outside the power plant fence line?

The short answer is “yes.” EPA cannot require states or power plant operators to take any specific measures, but it can set the emissions target stringent enough so that it would be challenging to achieve unless certain measures are taken. EPA is proposing state-specific targets based on the capacity of each state to leverage four “building blocks.” They are:

  1. Make fossil fuel power plants more efficient.
  2. Use low-emitting natural gas combined cycle plants more where excess capacity is available.
  3. Use more zero- and low-emitting power sources such as renewables and nuclear.
  4. Reduce electricity demand by using electricity more efficiently.

Although “outside-the-fence-line” measures are not specifically required under the proposal, states would be hard-pressed to meet their targets without using programs to reduce the demand for fossil electricity, by, for example, increasing energy efficiency and encouraging renewable energy.

Looking to Figure 1, EPA has chosen the System-level Option.

Figure 1: Scope of reduction requirements

Q&A: EPA Regulation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Existing Power Plants

On June 2, 2014, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its proposed Carbon Pollution Standards for Existing Power Plants (known as the Clean Power Plan), per its authority under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act (CAA). The development of this rule was announced by President Obama during his June 25, 2013, climate policy speech. The Clean Power Plan would establish different target emission rates (lbs of CO2 per megawatt-hour) for each state due to regional variations in generation mix and electricity consumption, but overall is projected to achieve a 30 percent cut from 2005 emissions by 2030, with an interim target of 25 percent on average between 2020 and 2029.

See more resources and maps at the C2ES Carbon Pollution Standards Resource Page.

Why is regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from existing power plants important?

Electric power generation is responsible for nearly 40 percent of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions.

Figure 1: 2012 U.S. CO2 Emissions

Source: Energy Information Administration

Since the federal government adopted new vehicle efficiency standards last summer to address transportation emissions through 2025, the power sector represents the greatest opportunity for greenhouse gas reductions.

Figure 2: Electric Power Sector Carbon Dioxide Emissions without Proposed Emission Standards

Source: Energy Information Administration

Power sector emissions have declined over the past five years in part due to the economic downturn, increased energy efficiency, greater use of renewable energy and a switch from coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, to natural gas, the least carbon-intensive (in terms of combustion). In the absence of any policy changes, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that as the economy grows and natural gas prices rise slowly over the next five years, emissions will rise. The Clean Power Plan will have to push against these underlying trends.

Figure 3: Distribution of Power Plants across the Contiguous United States

Source: Energy Information Administration

What is in EPA’s proposal?

Typically, EPA regulations are set at the federal level and then administered by states. For example, EPA sets a limit on the level of smog in the atmosphere, and states then submit plans for how they will meet that standard. Once approved by EPA, states then administer these plans, known as State Implementation Plans.

The proposed Clean Power Plan is similar in that states would be given a target emissions rate, but have broad flexibility to determine how to achieve that target. Each state would be assigned a carbon emissions baseline based on its level of carbon emissions from fossil-fired power plants divided by its total electricity generation. (See our Proposed State Emission Rate Targets Map.) Electricity generation in this case includes fossil generation, nuclear, renewables, plus generation avoided through the use of energy efficiency programs. A target for 2030 is then established for each state based on its capacity to achieve reductions using the following four “building blocks” identified by EPA:

1. Make fossil fuel power plants more efficient.

2. Use low-emitting natural gas combined cycle plants more where excess capacity is available.

3. Use more zero- and low-emitting power sources such as renewables and nuclear.

4. Reduce electricity demand by using electricity more efficiently.

Each state could then meet its established target however it sees fit. States could join multi-state programs to reduce emissions collectively, for example through a cap-and-trade program.

How much flexibility will states have to minimize costs?

States would have considerable flexibility to adopt a variety of approaches to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector, if they can demonstrate that they will achieve the emissions target.

Among the possibilities:

  • States could allow emissions credit trading among power plants owned by the same operator. This means that if one power plant reduced its emission rate below the state target, it could trade credits to a power plant that could not meet the target so that the company overall would be in compliance.
  • States could allow emissions trading between power companies and even across state lines (such a program would be similar to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative). Averaging or trading across power plants, companies, and states cut overall compliance costs by taking advantage of the lowest-cost opportunity for emissions reductions.
  • States could use energy efficiency or renewable energy for compliance, provided that the total emissions met an EPA-approved target.
  • States could also set a standard that is more stringent than what would be required by EPA's guidelines.

How much will this rule cost?

EPA projects that the compliance costs for this rule would be between $7.3 billion and $8.8 billion annually by 2030. EPA projects that this would lead to about a 3 percent increase in electricity rates by 2030. The rule would deliver considerable benefits as well, including a total of $55 billion to $93 billion in public health benefits by 2030, as projected by EPA. The rule could also reduce electricity consumption, meaning a homeowner’s electricity bill could stay the same or even decrease. It is important to weigh any costs of the Clean Power Plan against the costs of allowing carbon dioxide emissions to continue to rise unabated, contributing to climate change. The costs of climate impacts such as more frequent and intense heat waves, higher sea levels, and more severe droughts, wildfires and downpours, are projected to be much higher.

What can power plants do to reduce emissions?

An individual power plant could reduce its greenhouse gas emission rate by using fuel more efficiently or by switching to a lower carbon fuel, such as natural gas or biomass instead of coal. However, states would be complying with this rule on a statewide basis using any number of emission reduction options. As long as states met carbon dioxide targets broadly, action would not necessarily be required at particular power plants. States could meet their emissions targets by increasing their consumption of renewable electricity relative to fossil-generated electricity or improving energy efficiency. Options to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the power sector are illustrated in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Opportunities to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the power sector

How will existing state policies, such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, be affected?

States would have significant flexibility in setting regulations for existing power plants within their borders, but are required to follow the broad limits in EPA’s proposed rule. Since states have been given the authority to use market-based mechanisms, the nine Northeast states participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)would be able to demonstrate that their cap-and-trade program for power plants satisfies the required emission reductions, and that further regulation is therefore unnecessary. Policy measures that states might employ to achieve their carbon targets are listed in Table 1.

Table 1: Policy options to reduce power sector carbon dioxide emissions

PolicyDescriptionExamples
Power plant performance standardEach power plant must achieve a set emissions intensityCalifornia, New York, Washington
Renewable Portfolio StandardUtilities must deliver a set percentage of renewable electricityColorado, Hawaii, Kansas, Missouri, Nevada, Rhode Island, and others
Energy Efficiency Resource StandardUtilities must cut demand by a set amount by target yearsArizona, Connecticut, Maryland, Minnesota, Texas, and others
DecouplingReduce utility incentive to deliver more electricity by decoupling revenue and profitCalifornia, Idaho, Massachusetts, Michigan, Oregon, and others
Net MeteringEncourage residential solar by paying homeowners to put excess electricity back on gridArkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Louisiana, and others
Cap & TradeIssue a declining number of carbon allowances, which must be surrendered in proportion to each plant’s emissionsCalifornia, Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
Carbon TaxCharge a tax for emitting carbonBritish Columbia
Grid Operator Carbon FeeAdd a carbon price to grid operator decision over which power plants to runNone currently
Appliance Efficiency StandardsRequire new appliances sold to meet set electricity consumption standardsCalifornia, Florida, New Jersey, and others
Commercial & Residential Building CodesRequire new buildings to include electricity saving measuresCalifornia, Illinois, Maryland, Mississippi, and others

What happens now?

EPA has been directed by President Obama to work closely with states, power plant operators, and other stakeholders as it finalizes its guidelines due to their novelty and far-reaching implications. Administration officials have said they aim to issue a final rule by June 2015. The target date for states to submit their proposed plans to EPA is June 30, 2016, but states can apply for a one-year extension. After a plan is submitted, EPA will have a year to either approve plans or send them back to states for revision. If a state does not submit an adequate plan, EPA is authorized to impose a federal plan to drive the necessary reductions.

It is important to note that this action is not voluntary on the part of EPA. According to the Supreme Court in Massachusetts v. EPA (a decision that was recently reaffirmed), EPA is legally required to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act if it finds them to endanger public health and welfare, just as EPA has addressed more traditional pollutants for the past 43 years. In 2010, EPA settled a suit with several states and environmental groups by agreeing to finalize greenhouse gas standards for existing power plants by May 26, 2012.

Additional resources can be found on the C2ES Carbon Pollution Standards Resource Page.

Scenarios for U.S. Electricity in 2030

Scenarios for U.S. Electricity in 2030

May 2014

By Manik Roy, Ph.D

Download the brief (PDF)

Affordable reliable electricity is a central pillar of modern life. At the same time, the generation of electricity is responsible for nearly 40 percent of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions. Advances in technology and environmental policy are driving enormous change in the power sector, which will alter its ability to provide affordable and environmentally-sustainable electricity for decades to come. The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) has gathered input from a diverse group of business, labor, consumer, and environmental experts to develop a set of scenarios describing the extent to which U.S. electricity in 2030 could be affordable, reliable, safe, and environmentally sound. By articulating the challenges and opportunities that the next few years may bring, C2ES hopes to equip the stakeholders to better address them.

 

Manik Roy
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Carbon Pricing: State and Federal Options

Promoted in Energy Efficiency section: 
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9:30AM – 11:30AMU.S. Capitol Visitor Center, Room SVC 202-203See video here. (Session I)See video here. (Session II)

U.S. Capitol Visitor Center
Room SVC 202-203
First St SE
Washington, DC 20515

Thursday, May 22, 2014
9:30 AM to 11:30 AM

Carbon pricing is widely viewed as a cost-effective way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and encourage energy innovation. Different forms of carbon pricing are employed in a growing number of jurisdictions around the world. Experts join C2ES to explore options for expanding the use of carbon pricing in the United States -- in particular, as a way for states to implement upcoming federal standards to reduce carbon emissions from power plants.

Session I: Carbon Pricing - What are the Options?

See video here.

ADELE MORRIS (presentation)
Policy Director, Climate and Energy Economics Project, Brookings Institution

APARNA MATHUR (presentation)
Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute

Moderated by
JANET PEACE
Vice President, Markets and Business Strategy, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions

Session II: Carbon Pricing Under the Clean Air Act

See video here.

DALLAS BURTRAW (presentation)
Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future

DAVID BOOKBINDER (presentation)
Co-Founder, Element VI Consulting

BRIAN TURNER (presentation)
Deputy Executive Director for Policy and External Relations, California Public Utilities Commission

JON BREKKE (presentation)
Vice President, Membership and Energy Markets, Great River Energy

Moderated by
KYLE AARONS
Senior Fellow, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions

Pricing carbon - What are the options?

Judging from the climate policy debate in Washington, one might conclude that carbon pricing is only a concept, or something being tried in Europe.

But in fact, 10 U.S. states (California and the Northeast states in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) have carbon trading programs. That means more than a quarter of the U.S. population lives in a state with a price on carbon. And a growing number of nations and provinces around the globe are turning to carbon pricing to cost-effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions and encourage energy innovation.

Over the years, C2ES has closely examined the many ways available to price carbon, including a cap-and-trade system, an emissions tax, and a clean energy standard with tradable credits.

A Carbon Tax in Broader U.S. Fiscal Reform: Design and Distributional Issues

A Carbon Tax in Broader U.S. Fiscal Reform: Design and Distributional Issues

May 2014

By Adele Morris and Aparna Mathur

Download the full report (PDF)

This report examines the issues and options for designing a carbon tax in the United States. Reviewing the rationales for a carbon tax in the context of broader fiscal reform, it explores design issues, environmental benefits and the options for using the resulting revenue.

 

This report examines the issues and options for designing a carbon tax in the United States. Reviewing the rationales for a carbon tax in the context of broader fiscal reform, it explores design issues, environmental benefits and the options for using the resulting revenue.
Adele Morris
Aparna Mathur
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What to watch in EPA’s power plant carbon emissions proposal

On June 2, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to release its proposal to cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from existing power plants. This proposal is a key element of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan, and will be critical to reducing U.S emissions of CO2, the most common greenhouse gas contributing to climate change.

The proposed rule, being developed under EPA’s authority under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act, could be groundbreaking for at least two reasons. First, it has the potential to drive major reductions in the highest emitting sector in the United States – the power sector – which is responsible for nearly 40 percent of U.S. carbon emissions.  Second, EPA has indicated that the proposal will include a number of novel policy provisions to advance low-emitting generation and energy efficiency.

At C2ES, we’ll be looking for answers to four key questions as we read through EPA’s proposal. These questions are expanded upon in our new brief, Carbon Pollution Standards for Existing Power Plants: Key Challenges.

Eileeen Claussen's Statement on the National Climate Assessment

Statement of Eileen Claussen
President, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions


May 6, 2014

The Third National Climate Assessment makes clearer than ever that climate change is taking a toll here and now, and that it poses growing risks to communities across the country.

Based on an exhaustive review of the latest scientific evidence, the report brings it home to Americans that we are not immune to threats posed by climate change to our infrastructure, water supplies, agriculture, ecosystems, and health.

The impacts vary from region to region – more competition for water in the arid West, more heavy downpours in the Northeast and Midwest, and rising sea levels fueling powerful storm surges along the Gulf Coast. What is clear is that every region faces impacts that could be costly and severe.

Motivated in part by the billions in damages caused by recent extreme weather events, many companies are starting to take action to build their climate resilience, as documented in our “Weathering the Storm” report.

Companies, communities, and individuals all need to better manage climate risks, both by reducing carbon emissions and by becoming more climate-resilient. Investments in mitigation will give our adaptation efforts a greater chance of success.

We agree with the NCA: More must be done across the public and private sectors to reduce -- and to safeguard ourselves against -- the rising risks of a warming planet.
--
Contact Laura Rehrmann, rehrmannl@c2es.org or 703-516-0621

 

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